Analysis: Even with the reopening of the Suez Canal, it may take several weeks to months for the 1,500 stranded ships to fully resume passage.

The New York Times reported on May 25 that even as the U.S. and Iran edge closer to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, getting nearly 1,500 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf for almost three months back to sailing through the waterway will still require complex coordination. As a result, global energy shipping isn’t likely to return to normal anytime soon. The outlet noted that once the strait is actually reopened, shipping companies will still need to work through key issues: setting ship priorities, securing passage permits, arranging routes, and addressing potential risks from naval mines. Industry insiders predict that even if a formal agreement is finalized, it could take several weeks or even months to get back to the pre-conflict average of 130 ships transiting the strait each day. Since the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments, this slow recovery of logistics means international energy prices won’t drop quickly in the near term. Jakob Larsen, security director at the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), said relevant authorities may need to impose speed limits and unified scheduling in the future to prevent ship collisions or groundings.