Bitunix Analyst: Holicuz's "Talk and Shoot" Tactic, Market Begins to Realize True Uncertainty Never Went Away

May 26 – While optimism continues to build around a potential U.S.-Iran agreement, fresh military clashes near the Strait of Hormuz have jolted global markets. This underscores that the Middle East remains locked in a dynamic of parallel negotiations, power plays, and mounting pressure. The U.S. military has claimed it carried out a "self-defense strike" on Iranian missile sites and mine-laying vessels, while Tehran is accusing Washington of breaching the ceasefire – a clear sign of how far the touted peace framework is from delivering real stability. Markets are now zeroing in on whether the Strait of Hormuz can fully reopen for normal shipping. While multiple media outlets have begun leaking details of a draft deal – which includes provisions like resuming navigation within 30 days, easing Iran’s oil export curbs, partially unfreezing overseas assets, and extending the ceasefire by 60 days – the U.S. and Iran remain deadlocked on key sticking points: nuclear enrichment, sanctions relief, and control of the strait. That’s why market sentiment toward the potential deal is growing fatigued – there’s even a hint of the "boy who cried wolf" syndrome taking hold. For assets, oil prices bounced back after a sharp pullback, while U.S. Treasury yields rallied following a drop in Asian trading. This shows investors are temporarily betting on conflict de-escalation, but still standing on high alert for Middle East risks and global inflation headwinds. A full shutdown of Strait of Hormuz shipping would keep energy and supply chain bottlenecks alive, limiting the policy flexibility of global central banks. A larger underlying concern: markets are starting to accept that even if tensions ease, the era of high interest rates isn’t over anytime soon. Fed and ECB officials have stuck to hawkish stances lately, while markets are repricing rate hike odds – signaling that global investors no longer buy into the "central banks will always bail out markets" narrative. In crypto, BTC has stayed range-bound and choppy lately. A look at the liquidation heat map shows a large volume of short-liquidity positions building near $78,000-$78,200, while long-liquidation positions are clustered around $75,500 and $74,200. This points to a market stuck in a high-leverage tug-of-war, with investors yet to form a clear consensus on a sustained one-way move. Until macro uncertainty clears, short-term crypto will remain a highly sensitive barometer of global liquidity and risk appetite, rather than a standalone asset class with its own momentum. Now that markets are starting to question whether policymakers still have the tools to fully stabilize markets, the era of extreme volatility may just be getting underway.