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Iran Pauses Talks, US Bond Yields Drop, Traders Raise Rate Hike Bets

1 hours ago

June 1: U.S. Treasury prices fell as signs of a deadlock emerged in U.S.-Iran peace talks. Investors are growing concerned that soaring energy costs will exacerbate inflation, pushing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Monday’s sell-off lifted yields across the $31 trillion U.S. Treasury market. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped roughly six basis points to nearly 4.5%, while crude oil prices surged more than 7%. The two-year Treasury yield—most sensitive to Fed policy expectations—also rose about six basis points to 4.07%. The move follows Iran’s earlier suspension of talks with the U.S. via intermediaries in protest of Israeli actions. Traders have ramped up bets the Fed will deliver another rate hike: swap markets now fully price in one increase by March 2027, with a 50% chance of that hike arriving as early as October.
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