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Boston Fed: Iran War Has Limited Impact on US Labor Market

2026.06.05 03:31:30

June 5th — Axios reports the Boston Federal Reserve’s latest analysis finds that while an oil crisis on par with the 1970s would still stoke inflation, the threat to U.S. employment would be far smaller than it was five decades ago. Amid ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the domestic labor market is already showing early signs of recovery. If energy supply disruptions don’t pose a major risk to jobs, the Federal Reserve’s focus will shift from taming inflation to fending off another round of price hikes. In its new research, the Boston Fed’s economists say an oil shock matching the scale of the Iran-Iraq War would trigger a sharp, significant jump in inflation — yet barely impact U.S. employment. “The U.S. economy hasn’t outgrown its vulnerability to oil shocks, but those risks have shifted,” they noted. “Today, oil crises pose less of a challenge to monetary policy, letting policymakers focus more on the bigger threats to inflation.” Researchers estimate that U.S.-Iran frictions have pushed oil prices up by 33% — a historically large increase, but not unprecedented. The U.S. economy’s current structure is very different from during past energy crises, allowing it to absorb a shock of that size without nearly as much harm to jobs.
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