「Stock Market Oracle」 Serenity Discusses Personal Investment Framework: Guessing What the Market Doesn't Know Yet, Piecing Together High-Conviction Theories

June 7th – The famed "Stock God" Serenity shared his take on how beginners should approach learning investing, laying out his systematic investment framework. Serenity noted his style is unique: he builds independent judgments using information the market hasn’t priced in yet, paired with years of life experience. "A lot of this is about connecting unstructured dots and testing if your hunch pans out. This skill isn’t something you can learn easily from courses—it’s more about building life smarts and applying that to the market," he explained. Serenity backed this approach with two key examples. The first: Raspberry Pi (RPI). While the majority of the market saw RPI as just an educational toy, he spotted the rise of OpenClaw, an open-source AI agent framework. Watching friends snap up Raspberry Pis and Mac Minis to run AI apps, plus a surge in AI tutorial videos online, he concluded AI would be RPI’s growth engine. He modeled ~55% revenue growth; the final financial report came in at 58%, far beating the market’s 14% expectation. "Back then, media called it a meme stock because public data didn’t show the AI-driven revenue growth," he said. The second case is AXT. When he bought AXT around $12, he faced pushback. Even the dominant "large-scale cloud vendor/government should have fixed the indium phosphide substrate gap" narrative, paired with analysts’ steady-state TAM estimates, labeled AXT overvalued. "But AXT controls ~40% of the indium phosphide supply chain—without them, the whole chain breaks. What you need to figure out is: if it becomes a bottleneck like NAND flash, what market cap could it command with its control, and what price would buyers accept?" He added that Goldman Sachs’ later research and reports from substrate epitaxy firms confirmed his analysis. Serenity also noted not all investments need complex analysis: "Many stocks are straightforward enough to evaluate using standard methods." For example, if AAOI’s H1 2027 annualized revenue hits $471 million, its current $12 billion market cap would be undervalued. Samsung Electronics is even simpler—just check the market’s 2027 and 2028 operating profit models to see if current valuations make sense. For harder-to-value JBL, whose 1.6T LRO (Linear Receive Optics) has no clear sales data, "you have to guess how widespread it is, then work backward to its impact on market value." Serenity summed up his strategy as piecing together high-confidence inferences from unrelated snippets, adding, "Of course, I could be wrong at any time."