Flash Crash Reason: Top Institution Report Points to Mass Production Delay

June 10 — Independent research firm SemiAnalysis, a leading analyst focused on semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and data centers, released its latest multi-vertical research note today, with a core takeaway pointing to significant delays for two key AI data center technology paths. First, NVIDIA’s native 800VDC architecture shipments are being pushed back sharply. The report states NVIDIA’s originally planned single-ended 800VDC power supply design, intended for broad industry adoption, now has a shipment window extended to 2028. While the 400VDC high-voltage direct current solution remains on track, hyperscalers are choosing to stick with mature low-voltage systems or make gradual transitions to 400VDC rather than rushing to adopt 800VDC. The firm notes the marginal benefits of 800VDC for grid power and efficiency improvements don’t justify its added complexity, leading to a temporary industry slowdown for this tech. Second, the timeline for CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) mass production and delivery is also slowing. 2027 CPO shipment volumes are far lower than earlier aggressive market forecasts, and scale-out production timing is likely delayed to 2028 or even 2029. Downside risks for scale-out CPO switch shipments include optical engine connection yield limitations, ASIC integration challenges, and cost-effectiveness gaps. Even in optimistic cases, optical engine connection yields hover around 95%, but production volumes driven by a single ASIC remain very constrained. Looking forward, SemiAnalysis projects 400VDC products will ramp in Q2 2026, with strong growth expected in 2027; some NPO (Near Package Optics) projects may accelerate. However, Sidecar shipments based on new platforms like Rubin Ultra and Kyber will slip to the 2028 window, putting pressure on related power, switch, and optical module suppliers. On investment views, SemiAnalysis holds a relatively positive stance on companies including Anixter, Vertiv, and Legrand, while being more cautious about firms like Lumentum, Himax, Navitas, and Wolfspeed.