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Tonight, ahead of the CPI data release, the probability of a Fed interest rate hike this year is 68.8%.

2026.06.10 17:55:07

On June 10, per data from CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates at least once this year stands at 68.8% ahead of tonight’s May consumer price index (CPI) release by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The breakdown of projected rate hike probabilities is as follows: 43.1% for a cumulative 25-basis-point increase, 21.2% for 50 basis points, 4.2% for 75 basis points, and 0.3% for a 100-basis-point hike. The BLS is scheduled to unveil May CPI figures at 20:30 ET tonight. Market consensus forecasts May CPI will rise 0.5% month-over-month (MoM) and 4.2% year-over-year (YoY). Should this expectation hold, it would mark the first time U.S. CPI has returned above the 4% threshold since May 2023, hitting its highest level since April of that year. For core CPI, the market projects a 0.3% MoM increase and a 2.9% YoY growth rate in May.
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