Goldman Sachs Responds to SemiAnalysis' Stock Market Plunge Report: Acknowledges Short-Term Capacitor Output (CPO) Underperformance, But Confirms 800V Mass Production on Track

June 10. Morgan Stanley responded today to a research report from independent firm SemiAnalysis that sparked a sharp sell-off in U.S. stocks yesterday. While Morgan Stanley agreed with SemiAnalysis that CPO (Compute Express Link Plugable Optics) volumes will fall short of near-term targets, it remains bullish on CPO’s explosive growth starting in 2028. The Wall Street bank also explicitly pushed back against SemiAnalysis’s claim that 800V mass production is delayed until 2028, with supply chain checks confirming 800V cabinets are still on track for release in the second half of 2026. The day prior, SemiAnalysis had released a report flagging major delays to two key AI data center technology paths—an issue cited as a key driver of the U.S. AI sector’s sharp pullback yesterday. On CPO specifically, Morgan Stanley’s view lines up closely with SemiAnalysis: the firm projects global optical engine shipments will hit just 6-7 million units in 2027, far below the market’s consensus estimate of 20-30 million units. Bottlenecks stem from TSMC’s SoIC (System-on-Integrated Chip) yield, which stands at 50-60%, plus downstream assembly yields as low as 20-50%—factors that will keep near-term CPO sentiment under pressure. Still, Morgan Stanley holds an overweight rating on top CPO picks including TSMC, forecasting the 2026-2028 period will be a transitional phase where pluggable optical modules, CPO/NPO, and copper interconnect technologies coexist. True explosive growth for CPO, the bank says, won’t kick off until 2028. On 800V DC power cabinets, however, Morgan Stanley’s position is sharply at odds with SemiAnalysis. Its supply chain research confirms 800V mass production is not on hold. NVIDIA announced at its Taipei GTC conference that 800V cabinets will be ready for mass production by Q3 2026, with Delta Electronics set to become the first independent manufacturer to roll out the units. The first batch is slated for delivery to leading North American hyperscalers in Q4 2026. The core rift between the two firms centers on the ±400V DC power scheme: SemiAnalysis argues ±400V will coexist with 800V long-term, while Morgan Stanley’s data shows major cloud providers have shifted their R&D focus from ±400V to 800V. This divergence will directly reshape the power supply chain’s competitive landscape and supplier standing. The ultimate test of both firms’ outlooks will hinge on Delta’s initial 2026 Q4 shipments and year-end orders for ±400V sidecar units.