2026 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Endgame: Hike Dominance over Cut, Today's CPI Report Plants Hawkish Pivot Seeds

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), Tesla’s stock has fallen nearly 20% this week, marking its largest single-week decline since 2022. SpaceX closed at $115.07 per share, its lowest level since the company’s IPO last month. Data from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index shows that Elon Musk’s personal wealth has evaporated by approximately $130 billion in just five trading days. Just weeks ago, he became the first person in history to have a net worth exceeding $1 trillion. Musk himself joked on social media that he is a “(former) trillionaire”.

According to Axios, two sources said US President Donald Trump ordered the US military on Friday local time not to launch new strikes against Iran, ending nearly two weeks of daily consecutive attacks. The order came after 13 straight days of strikes on Iran. It remains unclear whether Friday’s directive is a one-off or signals a sustained lull. Trump’s decision reflects both his willingness to leave more room for diplomacy and recognition that US strikes have reached their limit without a return to large-scale combat operations. If Trump orders a resumption of strikes, US forces can mobilize relatively quickly. Sources added that the US military is still drafting plans for a possible return to large-scale operations, but Trump has not yet given the go-ahead for such a move. The White House has not responded. Separately, an Omani delegation arrived in Tehran on Friday to negotiate a new arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz. Sources said the talks have made progress, and an agreement between Oman and Iran could be reached over the weekend. Trump will then decide whether to accept the proposed deal. (Jinshi)

According to France's LCI TV news, former U.S. President Donald Trump said during remarks on Iran, "If we cannot get 100% of what we want from Iran, we will definitely consider resuming full-scale war." When asked what he wanted to say to European allies, Trump stated, "They are lucky to have a friend like me." (Source: Jinshi)

Contract whale "Xian Ding 10 Big Goals" posted a notice outlining its trading plan, stating that its previous BTC long position was entered near $64,980 and exited after triggering a stop-loss when the price dropped to $64,000–$64,300. The stop-loss was set to prevent a further rapid plunge to $63,000 if the $64,000 level broke. The trader will continue monitoring the market; if $64,000 is not effectively broken, it will gradually re-enter long positions near $64,000 next Monday and Tuesday, with a new stop-loss level set at $63,500–$63,000. On July 21, "Xian Ding 10 Big Goals" set a $300 million profit target for this round: in the prior round, it used 150 BTC to open positions targeting $150 million, realizing a maximum profit of $120 million. However, it misjudged the direction during a plunge from $120,000 at the last minute, erasing all profits and ultimately preserving only its principal plus a small gain. For this round, it is using 300 BTC to open positions with a $300 million target, and has so far booked $60 million in profit.

According to Bloomberg, DeepSeek has announced the suspension of its second round of financing, and has verbally notified some potential investors that it will not sign the investment agreement as scheduled. The suspension is partly rooted in founder Liang Wenfeng’s dissatisfaction over the leak of a transcript of his internal remarks made during the company’s first financing round, where he delivered 52 speeches at investor meetings covering DeepSeek’s organizational culture, open-source logic, technical roadmap, and views on the industry’s competitive landscape. DeepSeek noted that it may still resume the transaction process in the future, and has already begun preparations for an initial public offering (IPO), with the earliest possible filing this year. DeepSeek completed its first external financing round in June 2026, raising over 50 billion yuan (approximately $7.4 billion) at a post-money valuation of around $50–59 billion. The round adopted a special structure: most funds flowed into a limited partnership managed by Liang Wenfeng, investors held no voting rights and faced a 5-year lock-up period, with Liang himself contributing roughly 20 billion yuan as the largest single investor. Participants in the round included Tencent, CATL, JD.com, NetEase, and China’s National AI Fund. DeepSeek subsequently launched discussions for its second financing round in mid-July, targeting a valuation of approximately $71 billion.

DeepSeek announced the suspension of its second round of financing, and has verbally notified some potential investors that it will not sign the investment agreement as scheduled. The suspension is partly due to founder Liang Wenfeng's dissatisfaction with online reports about his remarks to investors during the first financing round. DeepSeek may still choose to resume the transaction process in the future, and has begun preparing for its initial public offering (IPO), which could be filed as early as this year.