World Cup Kickoff Approaching, Historical Data Review of the "World Cup Curse"

Changxin Technology will list on the STAR Market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27, with an initial market capitalization of around 580 billion yuan. The IPO is priced at 8.66 yuan per share, and the final online subscription winning rate hit 0.4714%, a new record for STAR Market IPOs. After full exercise of the over-allotment option, total fundraising can reach up to 66.6 billion yuan. According to Hyperinsight monitoring, the price of CXMT (Changxin Memory, with Changxin Technology as its listed entity) Pre-IPO contract on Hyperliquid is currently quoted at $6.087, equivalent to a share price of 41.2 yuan. Calculated based on the total share capital of 66.881 billion shares post-IPO, the on-chain implied market value stands at approximately $407.1 billion, or around 2.76 trillion yuan. Based on this valuation, the subscription cost for a single retail lot of 500 shares is 4,330 yuan, with an estimated market value of 20,600 yuan for 500 shares on the first trading day, translating to a single lot profit of roughly 16,000 yuan. Founded in 2016, Changxin Technology is China’s largest and most technologically advanced integrated DRAM R&D, design and manufacturing enterprise. In Q4 2025, it held a 7.67% global DRAM market share, ranking fourth worldwide and first in China, with ambitions to become the world’s third-largest DRAM supplier. In Q1 2026, the company’s revenue reached 50.8 billion yuan, surging 719% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders hit 24.762 billion yuan, a 1688% year-on-year jump. For the first half of 2026, it forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of between 50 billion and 57 billion yuan.

Elon Musk stated in an interview with The Economist that China will most likely emerge as an AI leader at some point in the future, and even if the U.S. bans Chinese AI models, it cannot prevent this outcome. (The Paper)

According to South Korean media reports, Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong met with OpenAI founder Sam Altman at OpenAI’s San Francisco headquarters to discuss cooperation in the fields of artificial intelligence and semiconductors. OpenAI announced on the 26th that Lee and Altman held talks at the company’s San Francisco headquarters on the morning of the 25th local time. While OpenAI did not disclose specific discussion contents or topics, industry observers believe the two sides likely communicated about deepening cooperation on AI infrastructure such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), and advanced wafer foundry. They may also have explored Samsung’s digital transformation plan for rolling out generative AI across its entire business lines. (Jinshi)

"The 'Big Short' protagonist Michael Burry has disclosed his latest portfolio adjustments, continuing to increase short exposure to semiconductor stocks. Specifically, he added to short positions in Micron Technology (MU), NVIDIA (NVDA), and semiconductor ETF SOXX at prices of $933.86, $210.28, and $535.83 respectively. Additionally, Burry also added to his short position in Caterpillar (CAT) at $893.49. On the long side, he increased holdings in Flutter (FLUT), DraftKings (DKNG), and Molina Healthcare (MOH) at prices of $100.72, $23.07, and $197.02 respectively. Burry’s short positions in Tesla, Palantir, and Nasdaq 100 Index ETF QQQ remained unchanged."

Data shows that South Korean retail investors aggressively bought 14 single-stock leveraged ETFs on the 24th, with a daily purchase volume of around 450 billion won. Prior to this, South Korean retail investors had net sold a total of about 500 billion won over three consecutive days. According to data from the Korea Exchange and Koscom Check, as of July 26, retail investors net sold 14 single-stock leveraged products over three consecutive days from July 21 to 23, with a total net selling amount of 547.17138 billion won. This trend completely reversed on July 24. In just one day, retail investors net bought seven Samsung Electronics single-stock leveraged products, with a net purchase amount of 103.8959 billion won; meanwhile, they also net bought seven SK Hynix single-stock leveraged products, with a net purchase amount of 350.02688 billion won. Notably, this net buying occurred on "Black Friday", when the KOSPI index fell by more than 5%, and Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both closed with declines of 7% to 8%. Affected by this, the single-stock leveraged ETFs tracking the stocks of these two companies also plummeted by 15% to 16%. Analysts believe that the sharp drop in the prices of single-stock leveraged ETFs attracted some investors to buy the dip. In addition, as a new rule raising the minimum margin requirement will take effect on the 31st, some retail investors may want to increase their positions by "averaging down" before regulatory tightening, thus driving related demand. (Jin10)

Surging energy prices, new U.S. tariffs, and a sharp rise in AI capital expenditures have reignited global investor concerns about inflation. Brent crude topped $100 for the first time in two months, retreating to $98.38 on Friday, but still notching a nearly 12% weekly gain. Markets expect the Federal Reserve, Bank of England (BOE), and Bank of Japan (BOJ) to hold interest rates steady next week, though federal funds futures show a 35% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike next week, with a September increase already fully priced in. On the macro front, next week will bring consecutive rate decisions from the Fed, BOE, and BOJ, plus key data including U.S. second-quarter GDP, June core PCE, Eurozone second-quarter GDP, and July CPI. Key scheduled events are as follows: Tuesday at 20:15 ET, U.S. weekly ADP employment change for the week ended July 11. Thursday at 02:00 ET, Fed FOMC rate decision; 02:30 ET, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a monetary policy press conference; 19:00 ET, BOE announces its rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report; 20:30 ET, U.S. initial jobless claims, June core PCE, personal spending, and second-quarter GDP data. Friday, the BOJ will release its rate decision and economic outlook report (time to be determined); 14:30 ET, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a press conference; 22:00 ET, U.S. July final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and 1-year inflation expectation. Separately, SK Hynix will release its second-quarter earnings on July 29 at 8:00 ET. Meta, Microsoft, Robinhood, Qualcomm, and Arm will report after U.S. market close on Wednesday, while Apple, Amazon, Coinbase, Reddit, and Roblox will do so after Thursday’s close. Investors will closely monitor the tech giants’ AI-related capital expenditures and returns on investment. Alphabet had earlier raised its 2024 capital expenditure forecast to $205 billion, with its spending plans and negative free cash flow already sparking market concerns.