World Cup Kickoff Approaching, Historical Data Review of the "World Cup Curse"

June 11th – Tomorrow morning, the 2026 FIFA World Cup will officially kick off. For football fans, the quadrennial event is an absolute highlight, but investors are growing concerned that the World Cup will divert market focus and could negatively impact the investment space. BlockBeats has combed through historical data to summarize how the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin performed during past World Cups: U.S. Stock Market: Over 40 years of World Cup history, the S&P 500 has posted 5 gains and 5 declines, with an average return of approximately -0.18% and a median return of around +0.30%. Overall, there’s no distinct "World Cup Curse" for U.S. stocks, though volatility drops significantly during these tournaments. To break it down: the 1998 World Cup coincided with a strong period for U.S. equities, leading to the index’s largest gain during a World Cup; the 2002 World Cup took place amid the bursting of the dot-com bubble and a financial trust crisis, resulting in the index’s steepest drop; the 2022 World Cup was impacted by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, inflation, and recession fears. Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s performance during World Cups has generally been underwhelming, with a clear "World Cup Curse" effect emerging—most notably during the 2014, 2018, and 2022 editions, where prices mostly trended downward or saw weakened consolidation. A key pattern: 2014, 2018, and 2022 were all bear market years for Bitcoin, and the start of each World Cup compounded its weak performance. For example, Bitcoin suffered a peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 15% in 2018.