Bitunix Analyst: Today's CPI Could Further Solidify Expectations of a New Hiking Cycle

June 11. For the past year, markets have priced every development through the lens of when the Federal Reserve will cut rates. But recent data is forcing investors to confront a different question: if inflation reignites even as growth and employment stay strong, will major global central banks be forced back onto a hiking path? Tonight’s U.S. May CPI release is the critical test. The consensus estimate is for year-over-year inflation to rise to 4.2%—the first print above 4% in nearly three years. Critically, this cycle’s inflation isn’t driven by energy alone: energy costs, tariffs, and services prices are all pushing inflation higher at the same time, while wage growth continues to lag—eroding real purchasing power. For the Fed, the real risk to watch isn’t any single month’s data point, but whether inflation expectations are starting to un-anchor. More importantly, bond markets have already priced in this shift. From SOFR options to the broader Treasury complex, large positions are now betting on a Fed hike as early as September. The steady climb in U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields reflects the market’s growing acceptance of “higher for longer”—and even limited additional hikes. This is the core reason behind the recent sharp volatility in tech stocks, gold, and crypto: markets aren’t worried about recession, but about a renewed rise in the cost of capital. Meanwhile, expectations for the Bank of Japan are nearly unanimous: a 25 basis point hike to 1% next week—its highest policy rate since 1995—with markets even pricing in the chance of another hike in October. If Japan formally enters a hiking cycle, the ultra-accommodative policy that has supported global liquidity for over a decade is being progressively unwound. When the U.S., Japan, and Europe all begin discussing tighter policy, rising global cost of capital stops being a single-country problem and becomes a global liquidity revaluation. For crypto, liquidity remains the biggest variable. As markets trade synchronized global central bank tightening, rising bond yields, and the massive capital siphoned off by the AI sector, high-risk assets face a much stricter valuation test. Tonight’s CPI isn’t just an inflation print—it could be the pivot that defines the direction of global asset pricing for the second half of the year.