Analysis: Top 3 Miner Metrics Under Pressure, Bitcoin Enters "Miner Stress Zone" But Not at All-Time High

June 11 – Crypto analyst Adler AM noted in his latest Bitcoin Morning Brief that Bitcoin’s mining economy is facing noticeable pressure, though it hasn’t hit the systemic capitulation levels seen in 2018 and 2022. The 30-day moving average (MA) Puell Multiple has fallen to 0.74, down roughly 11% over the 10 days from May’s end level of 0.83 as of June 10. The raw Puell Multiple is even lower at 0.58, signaling a sharp compression in daily miner revenue. This level lines up with the range seen in July-August 2024 (when BTC traded between $55K and $68K) but is still well above the extreme lows of 0.45 in late 2022 and 0.33 in 2018. Adler stressed the current environment remains in the “pressure zone” — not the “capitulation zone” — with a critical threshold at 0.50, a level that historically aligns with the mass miner shutdowns of 2022. Meanwhile, the P2MR (Price-to-Miner-Revenue) Indicator has plummeted from 160 to 80 — a 50% drop from its peaks in July 2025 and February 2021. This metric measures Bitcoin’s valuation relative to miners’ annualized revenue. At 80, it sits in the “normalized valuation range,” near November 2021 levels (when BTC traded around $57K) but still miles above the undervalued troughs of roughly 33 in late 2022 and ~15 in 2019. To mark a deep market bottom, this indicator would need to fall to the 40–50 range. On the miner capitulation front, the relative price metric has retraced 21% from its “difficulty bottom.” This indicator stood at just -8% on June 1, near 0 at the end of May, but has quickly widened to -21% now, pointing to mounting miner stress. For context, the 2022 bottom hit -39% (when BTC traded around $35K), while 2018’s deepest level only fell to -5% to -6%. The current reading has dipped below the -15% “pressure line” into the “red zone,” though it’s still far from historical extremes. A drop to -30% would typically signal a period of major miner shutdowns and forced selling. All in all, the market is still in a “moderate pressure” phase, nowhere near the full-scale capitulation cycles of 2018 and 2022. If BTC falls below roughly $55K without a corresponding difficulty adjustment, the Puell Multiple could approach the 0.50 threshold. Conversely, a rise above $70K would likely take a huge load off miners, resetting the current cycle’s structure.