「White-Haired Stock God」 Calls for Long on XFAB: European Silicon Photonics Foundry Positioning Core Technology, May Challenge TSEM and GFS, Commercialization Still in Early Stage

On June 11, self-proclaimed "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity posted that X-FAB Silicon Foundries SE is building out alternative silicon photonics foundry capabilities—something some market participants view as a potential long-term rival to Tower Semiconductor and GlobalFoundries, and a possible addition to Europe’s CPO (Co-packaged Optics) and photonics chip supply chain lineup. X-FAB has already secured some European industry backing and has ties to NVIDIA’s technology assessment system. Its development direction is framed as part of Europe’s broader push to gain independence in packaging and silicon photonics supply chains. Regarding the timeline, the project is still in early R&D: development work is expected to continue through around October 2026, followed by a gradual production ramp-up in 2027. Larger-scale commercial production may only get underway around 2028, with the project’s R&D origins tracing back to roughly 2023. Right now, the market still broadly categorizes X-FAB as a traditional industrial or automotive supply chain-linked company. However, some analysts argue that its long-term potential in silicon photonics and CPO hasn’t been fully priced into its stock value. That said, this thesis remains heavily dependent on tangible progress in future technology commercialization—overall, it’s still an early, expectation-driven narrative with significant uncertainty ahead.