Berenberg: 2026 World Cup Will Become Key Catalyst for Prediction Markets, Expected to Bring $5 to $10 Billion Incremental Trading Volume

**Bernstein: 2026 FIFA World Cup to Drive Record Growth for Global Prediction Markets, Benefit DraftKings, Robinhood, Coinbase** June 11 — A Bernstein Research analyst says the 2026 FIFA World Cup, kicking off today across North America, will serve as the single biggest growth catalyst the prediction market industry has ever seen. The firm projects the tournament will add over $30 billion in incremental trading volume for global prediction markets, while lifting consumer prediction trading activity between $50 billion and $100 billion. Featuring an expanded field of 48 teams, the World Cup will include 104 matches — roughly a 60% jump from a standard World Cup edition. Bernstein adds the 2026 tournament could prove prediction markets have permanently outgrown their reliance on election cycles and niche political contracts. Earlier forecasts from the firm called for annual prediction market trading volume to rise from $51 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2030, with 2026’s total volume projected to hit $240 billion. For individual players, DraftKings stands as the most clear-cut beneficiary per Bernstein. Additionally, the firm notes Robinhood is leveraging the World Cup’s kickoff to launch Rothera — its CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, a joint venture with Susquehanna. Bernstein expects prediction market activity to be Robinhood’s largest driver of incremental revenue in 2026. The firm projects Robinhood’s annualized prediction market revenue will climb from $415 million in Q1 2026 to roughly $586 million by year-end — a 286% year-over-year increase that will make up about 17% of the company’s total transactional revenue. On Coinbase’s side, Bernstein highlights the crypto exchange’s prediction market business is expanding at a rapid pace. In March 2026, Coinbase’s annualized revenue from its prediction market unit topped $100 million, just two months after the product launched — making it one of the fastest-growing lines in the firm’s history. Coinbase will offer World Cup-related contracts via a partnership with Kalshi. May 2026 data shows overall global prediction market trading volume hit $31.2 billion, a 5% month-over-month increase. Kalshi’s volume rose 21% to $17.9 billion, boosting its market share to roughly 57%. Meanwhile, Polymarket saw its global trading volume fall 14.8% to $7.1 billion during the same period.