The European Central Bank Raises Interest Rates for the First Time in Almost Three Years

Deutsche Bank analyst George Saravelos pointed out in a report that if the Federal Reserve shifts its policy focus from interest rate hikes to balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening, QT) to tighten monetary policy, the U.S. dollar could weaken. He noted that Japan’s experience is instructive: although the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised interest rates slowly, it has been withdrawing liquidity via QT at a record pace, yet the yen remains at historic lows. In addition, balance sheet tightening could spark policy conflicts with the Trump administration, which has explicitly stated its goal of keeping long-term U.S. Treasury yields low. Saravelos also added that the BOJ’s independence remains a key focus for markets, and Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato has even discussed using domestic savings to support Japan’s bond market. (Jin10)

According to US reports on July 15, internal assessment data from the US Department of Defense shows that the actual cost of US military operations against Iran could reach as high as $100 billion, far exceeding the approximately $30 billion previously disclosed by the US government. The huge gap between the two figures is mainly because the official estimates did not include undisclosed combat expenses, losses of advanced fighter jets, and the cost of severe damage to US military facilities in the Middle East. US Senator Angus King stated that American people are very disappointed at not being able to know the actual cost of the war, "not to mention the additional costs the war has brought to people in areas such as gasoline prices." (CCTV News)

Goldman Sachs data shows retail investors now account for roughly 30% of daily trading volume in U.S. stocks. In May this year, retail stock trading volume was 10% higher than the peak during the January 2021 "Retail vs. Wall Street" period, and hit a new all-time high in June. The options market has seen a corresponding surge in activity, with daily trading volume repeatedly topping 50 million contracts so far this year—doubling levels from three years ago. Citadel Securities data indicates July was one of the months with the strongest retail buying in its records, with no net daily sell-offs logged. The sustained buying has forced some underweight institutional investors to chase positions at elevated levels. Goldman Sachs estimates retail investors hold $12 trillion in assets in their brokerage accounts, roughly 10% of the U.S. corporate equity market. When including directly and indirectly held assets, the total holdings of U.S. individual investors reach $111 trillion. Bobby Molavi, Goldman Sachs’ head of execution services, described this group as the "Great White Whale" of capital markets. However, the market remains divided over the AI narrative driving the current rally. Commentator Ed Zitron warned that OpenAI’s massive computing power spending and infrastructure debt could trigger an "AI version of the Lehman Moment"; Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital, argued that AI’s productivity potential could offset short-term financial pressures.

According to CNN, last year U.S. President Donald Trump posted a "very big and exciting announcement" on Truth Social. At the time, semiconductor giant NVIDIA (NVDA.O) had just announced plans to build an AI supercomputer in the U.S. In an April 15, 2025 post to his over 9 million followers, Trump promised that "all necessary permits will be expedited and quickly delivered to NVIDIA and similar companies." However, what Trump did not disclose at the time was that he had purchased between $200,000 and $500,000 worth of NVIDIA stock just days earlier. A CNN investigation found that days after Trump bought stock in more than 20 companies, he promoted those firms on his Truth Social account, sometimes announcing government actions that could benefit the companies he had just invested in. The White House strongly denied that Trump had abused his position for personal gain, stating that all his actions were aimed at benefiting the American public. The White House added that all of the president's stock transactions are handled by external financial managers, and Trump and his family have no control over the specific trades. (Jinshi)

According to Bitget data, international gold and silver prices continue to decline. The intraday drop in spot silver has expanded to 4%, currently trading at $55.6 per ounce; the intraday drop in spot gold has widened to 2%, falling below $4,000 per ounce.

According to Axios, Trump Media & Technology Group will launch the Truth API, allowing financial services companies to pay for access to real-time data from Truth Social. This marks the company’s first expansion of its media business into the data licensing space, with an official launch planned for August 1. The Truth API will initially offer real-time posts from the platform’s 10 most popular accounts, including Donald Trump, the White House, FBI Director Kash Patel, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino, and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., among others. The company may expand the range of accessible accounts in the future based on clients’ payment levels. Interim CEO Kevin McGurn stated that the company has already signed multiple clients ahead of the launch, including financial news organizations and high-frequency trading firms, though he did not disclose specific names. He noted that some institutions have long scraped Truth Social data and resold it to their own clients, and the API licensing process will be significantly faster than scraping. Trump Media is also discussing licensing Truth Social data to AI companies for use in training large language models. Last year, the company generated $3.68 million in advertising and subscription revenue, with a net loss of $712 million, a large portion of which stemmed from accounting expenses related to cryptocurrency investments.