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CME FedWatch: Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop to 59.4%

2026.06.13 13:45:36

As of June 13, data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 39.6% probability the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady through December, with only a 1% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut in that period. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike this year has dropped to 59.4%. The breakdown of projected hike probabilities is as follows: a 42.3% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase, 14.9% for 50 basis points, 2.1% for 75 basis points, and a tiny 0.1% probability of a cumulative 100-basis-point rate hike.
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