Analysis: BTC long-term holders still have the ability to create short-term selling pressure spikes, but their long-term influence has diminished compared to the past

**June 14 Update: Crypto Analyst Darkfost cites on-chain data showing Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders (LTHs—defined as addresses holding BTC for over six months) exhibit contradictory behavior: they balance short-term activity with consistent long-term holding patterns.** **Near-term red flag: Bitcoin inflows to exchanges from LTHs remain above normal levels. Historically, when LTHs move BTC to exchanges, it signals an impending sale. Darkfost defines an “extreme sell-off event” as days where daily exchange inflows hit at least five times the annual average. These events have emerged recently, meaning LTHs could still trigger sudden selling pressure in the short run.** **Long-term trend: The annual average of LTH exchange inflows has steadily declined. While it bounced slightly from roughly 630 BTC per day in early May to over 800 BTC per day recently, it still sits at its lowest level since records began in 2015. Darkfost attributes this shift to LTHs growing far more inclined toward long-term holding—likely tied to ETF launches and changes in holder composition as institutional players enter the space.** **Bottom line: Even though LTHs can spark periodic concentrated selling pressure in the short term, their medium- to long-term market influence has dropped sharply. They no longer dominate the crypto market like they did in previous cycles.**