This Week's Macro Outlook: US-Iran Agreement Sets Bullish Tone, US and Japan Interest Rate Decisions Test Bull Market, Powell's "Debut" Worth Watching

June 15. At the start of this week, the U.S.-Iran deal appeared to signal the continuation of the U.S. stock market’s bull run, with markets opening higher to welcome the positive news. However, midweek, the market will shift its focus to interest rate decisions from several major central banks, along with Fed Chair Powell’s first key speech since taking office. Investors expect him to deliver clear signals on the outlook for interest rate paths and reforms to the Fed’s communication framework. Below are the key points the market will watch in the new week (all times in Beijing time): Monday: 15:15 — ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech. Tuesday: (Time TBD) Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision; at 14:30, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya holds a monetary policy press conference. Tuesday, 20:15 — U.S. ADP Employment Change for the week ending May 30. Thursday: 02:00 — Fed FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic projections; at 02:30, Fed Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference. Thursday, 20:30 — U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 13, and the June Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Policy signal focus: On the policy front, markets are closely tracking whether three hawkish signals from the Fed will come to pass: First, will the phrase “next step tilts toward rate cut” be removed from the original policy statement? If this line is cut, it would mean the Fed is officially ending its previous dovish bias and shifting to a policy stance centered on fighting inflation. Second, changes to the dot plot: The March dot plot projected a rate cut later this year, but this latest dot plot will likely show rates staying steady, with a majority of officials possibly expecting a rate hike. Third, shifts in risk appetite: If officials’ concerns about inflation rise significantly while worries about the labor market recede, that could pave the way for future rate increases. Friday, June 19: Due to the June holiday, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed for the day. Trading for CME Group’s precious metals, energy, foreign exchange (forex), stock index, and U.S. Treasury futures contracts will close at 01:00 on June 20 (Beijing time). Trading for ICE’s Brent crude oil futures contracts will end at 01:30 on June 20 (Beijing time).