「White-Haired Stock God」: Should Not Be Bearish at the Moment, Policy Environment Tilted Positive Ahead of US Midterm Elections

June 15 The "White-Hair Stock Guru" Serenity took to social media today to note that maintaining a bearish stance on the current market is not prudent. Serenity pointed to multiple factors as collective drivers supporting risk asset performance: the U.S. policy landscape, easing geopolitical strains, and rising investor risk appetite. As U.S. midterm elections draw near, markets expect the Trump administration to roll out more pro-growth and pro-capital market policy actions. Separately, de-escalating tensions in Iran and progress in corresponding peace talks have pulled down crude oil futures prices, further improving the broader macroeconomic backdrop. Moreover, fueled by these positive developments, the market’s implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 has fallen from roughly 65% to 35%. The drop in energy prices has also alleviated inflationary pressures. SPCX’s successful initial public offering (IPO) has further boosted market sentiment toward thematic investments and newly-listed stocks—for example, the space sector. High-growth sectors like semiconductors, optical communications, and aerospace are projected to benefit from the improved policy and liquidity environment. European markets are especially sensitive to shifts in Middle East developments; if geopolitical risks keep cooling off, European assets could display stronger resilience.