Bitunix Analyst: The Fed Enters the Powell Era, Market Trading on Fundamentals Like Never Before

June 15 marks Kevin Wash’s first rate-setting meeting as Chairman of the Federal Reserve—and the market is laser-focused on whether the central bank will shake up its policy framework fundamentally. While U.S. consumer confidence has ticked up from a historic low to 48.9, one-year inflation expectations stay anchored at a lofty 4.6%. European Central Bank officials have also warned that price pressures could persist long-term even after geopolitical conflicts ease. Against this backdrop of sticky, higher-than-expected inflation, Wash—who previously pushed for rate cut adjustments—is now facing growing hawkish resistance within the Fed. On the policy front, the market isn’t just watching interest rates: it’s also closely monitoring whether the Fed will abandon the communication patterns it’s used for over a decade. Wash has long criticized the so-called “dot plot” of rate projections and overly granular forward guidance, even advocating for balance sheet reduction to replace some interest rate tools. If the Fed scales back policy transparency and weakens forward guidance moving forward, markets will lose a key pricing anchor, pushing long-term bond yields higher and fueling volatility in global risk assets. This dynamic is a core driver of the ongoing pressure in the bond market. Meanwhile, global capital flows are still centered on two big themes: AI and energy. ARK continues adding to its SpaceX stakes, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are preparing to underwrite SpaceX’s upcoming IPO, and SK Hynix is reportedly pursuing a U.S. listing—all signaling red-hot investor appetite for AI infrastructure and the space economy. But the AI sector is shifting: multiple U.S. states are probing OpenAI, and Anthropic is clashing with the U.S. government over access to its AI models. The industry is moving past pure growth hype to a phase of regulation and institutional competition. Going forward, market competition won’t be just about technological leadership—it will hinge on control of computing power, energy, and regulatory frameworks. The Middle East has seen a major shift: the U.S.-Iran memorandum is finalized. If signed this week and the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal navigation, energy supply risks will drop sharply, helping ease recent inflation strains. But the Israel-Lebanon conflict remains unresolved, so geopolitical risks haven’t vanished entirely. The global market is now in a unique phase: reduced war risks, lingering inflation risks, and tight liquidity. For crypto, Bitcoin acts as a barometer of global risk appetite. If the Fed holds to high rates and keeps policy tight (with U.S. Treasury yields elevated), even cooling geopolitical tensions may not spark fresh inflows. Conversely, if energy prices fall and inflation expectations decline, markets could price in future liquidity relief. Right now, the market’s real focus has shifted from rate expectations to whether a turning point in global funding costs is on the horizon.