Bitcoin Rebounds to $65,000, Market Betting Fed Won't Turn More Hawkish?

The U.S. June PCE Price Index, released today, fell 0.1% month-over-month—the first monthly decline since the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Its year-over-year growth slowed to 3.7% from a three-year high of 4.1% in May. Core PCE rose just 0.1% month-over-month, with its year-over-year rate dropping to 3.3% from 3.4%, though it remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for the sixth consecutive year. The cooling inflation was largely driven by falling oil prices following the temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Consumer spending remained robust: inflation-adjusted consumer spending in June rose 0.4% month-over-month, matching the fastest pace since July 2025. The second quarter’s annualized GDP growth slowed to 1.5% from 2.1% in the first quarter, but domestic private final sales (excluding net exports, inventories, and government spending) jumped 3.9%—more than doubling the first-quarter figure and hitting its highest level since early 2023. Consumer spending, which makes up roughly two-thirds of the economy, surged from 0.5% to 3.2%. Low unemployment, tax cuts, and the AI investment boom have jointly supported household consumption and corporate capital expenditure. However, energy prices remain a key risk for the second half of the year: the average regular gasoline price in Q2 hit $4.22 per gallon, far above the sub-$3 level before the conflict, and oil prices have risen again this month. Consumer goods firms including Procter & Gamble have noted consumers are more price-sensitive. The day before the GDP report’s release, the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. Three regional Fed presidents dissented, pushing for a 25-basis-point rate hike. Waller said, “The economy is showing impressive resilience.” The expanding camp of rate-hike advocates underscores growing internal divisions within the Fed.

Unitree Robotics (688836.SH) announced that it will carry out its initial public offering (IPO) and listing on the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market). The offering adopts a combined approach of strategic placement, institutional (offline) subscription, and retail (online) subscription. The company plans to issue 40,446,434 new shares, representing 10% of its total share capital post-IPO, bringing the post-offering total share count to 404,464,340 shares. The preliminary inquiry date is August 5, 2026, and the institutional subscription date is August 10, 2026. The company has a special voting right mechanism; under the voting right differential arrangement, its actual controller Wang Xingxing holds 68.78% of the company’s total voting rights.

According to BIT (bit.com) market data, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM.N) saw its U.S. pre-market shares rise more than 4%. On the news front, TSMC announced today that it will develop AI chip packaging technology.

Prediction platform Polymarket announced it will implement major adjustments to the settlement mechanism of its crypto price movement markets starting August 7 to safeguard market integrity. Effective at 00:00 UTC that day, affected markets will no longer settle based on a single point-in-time price snapshot, instead adopting the Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) model. Different market durations have corresponding TWAP windows: all crypto 5-minute markets use a 30-second TWAP, 15-minute markets use a 60-second TWAP, and 4-hour markets also use a 60-second TWAP. The prior single-snapshot settlement method was vulnerable to price manipulation during low-liquidity periods; the change marks Polymarket’s proactive reinforcement of its market integrity framework following a series of regulatory concerns. To support the transition, Polymarket will allocate $1 million in liquidity rewards to all affected markets throughout August. Technically, Chainlink’s TWAP testnet data stream is already live, while mainnet data streams and Polymarket’s real-time data stream service will launch on August 4. Developers will then be able to access TWAP prices directly via Chainlink Data Streams or Polymarket’s public WebSocket.

The increase in U.S. initial jobless claims last week came in lower than market expectations, signaling the labor market remains stable. The U.S. Department of Labor announced Thursday that for the week ending July 25, initial jobless claims across states rose by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 197,000, against economists' forecast of 200,000. This uptick partially offset the prior week's decline, when the figure had hit its lowest level since 1969. Initial jobless claims data for July is often volatile, as automakers typically halt production for annual maintenance and equipment upgrades during this period. However, this year, General Motors kept most of its assembly plants operational, while Ford Motor canceled its traditional summer shutdown for truck factories. This may have disrupted the statistical models the government uses to filter out seasonal fluctuations. Economists noted that the U.S. labor market remains in a state of "slowing hiring and slowing layoffs".

According to BIT (bit.com) market data, Oracle’s US stock rose nearly 5% in pre-market trading, and is now up over 3.5%. On the news front, Oracle has expanded its partnership with Google, and will launch enterprise applications powered by Google’s Gemini model.