If the full reopening of the Suez Canal were to occur, it would directly affect approximately 20% of global oil shipping flow.

On June 15, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a peace deal has been struck with Iran to end their ongoing conflict, stating both sides will "immediately and permanently halt all military operations" and work to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to restore global energy shipping lanes. Trump noted the agreement was finalized on his birthday and is set to be officially signed at a ceremony in Switzerland this coming Friday. In a social media post, he wrote "Let the oil flow" and announced the lifting of the U.S. Navy’s blockade of the strategic waterway. Pakistani officials involved in mediating the conflict told reporters both sides have agreed to a ceasefire and an end to all military activity. Ahead of the formal signing, they plan to hold a series of technical consultations to hash out follow-up implementation mechanisms, including critical sticking points such as Iran’s nuclear program and regional security arrangements. Reports indicate the core terms of the agreement have not been made public, with key controversial issues—like the future direction of Iran’s nuclear plan—still unresolved. In financial markets, rising hopes of easing tensions are putting downward pressure on crude oil prices. Analysts believe that if full shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global crude oil flows, it would directly impact energy markets, suppressing prices significantly. However, reports also highlight the deal faces significant uncertainty: whether Israel will accept it, whether regional conflicts will fully de-escalate, and whether all parties can implement their agreed-upon mechanisms. All of these factors could shape the final outcome. Broad consensus among experts is that while the deal represents a major cooling of tensions, it is closer to a phased ceasefire framework than a permanent final political solution.