Market Bets on US-Iran Breakthrough Drive Risk Asset Rebound, Oil Plunges, Rate Cut Expectations Advance

On June 15, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have struck a peace deal framework, with plans to formally sign it on June 19. The framework includes measures like lifting U.S. military maritime blockades and facilitating the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has driven a sharp uptick in global market risk sentiment. Crude oil prices plummeted sharply, with Brent crude falling roughly 5% to around $82 a barrel—dropping a total of about 33% from its March peak. Analysts noted that resuming maritime shipping in the strait would directly ease fears of a looming global energy supply crunch. Global stock markets rallied in tandem: major global equity indexes were broadly higher. U.S. Nasdaq futures jumped roughly 2% in pre-market trading. Risk assets rebounded across the board—Bitcoin briefly topped $66,000, marking a 2.7% gain over 24 hours, while gold prices climbed nearly 3% to above $4,330. In the interest rate market, investors are widely expecting the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% at its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and have largely priced out further rate hikes for the rest of the year. The first rate cut is now projected to be delayed until early 2027. Still, analysts caution that the situation remains highly uncertain: questions linger over whether Middle East tensions will genuinely de-escalate, whether the 60-day ceasefire framework will translate into a long-term pact, and the progress of subsequent talks—all of which could spark significant market swings. Technically, while Bitcoin has bounced back from its $60,000 support level, it remains within a descending channel structure. Key resistance zones sit at $68,900 and $80,000, so its short-term trajectory will hinge on shifts in macro risk sentiment and overall market liquidity.