Bitunix Analyst: Market Starts Trading Peace Dividend, but the Truly Revalued are Global Funding Cost and Liquidity Order

June 16. The market’s focus has gradually shifted from the Middle East conflict itself to fund reallocations following the peace agreement. As Trump arrives in Europe for the G7 summit, both the U.S. and Iran have confirmed they will sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th, with progress ongoing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But per Mitsui O.S.K. Lines— the world’s largest oil tanker operator— the market no longer cares if the deal gets signed; its attention is now on whether shipping, insurance, and the energy supply chain can return to normal operations. This explains why oil prices have fallen recently, stocks have climbed, but shipping companies remain cautious: risk events are receding, yet the risk premium hasn’t fully disappeared. From a macro perspective, global markets are grappling with three intersecting capital trends. First, inflation expectations are adjusting amid lower energy risk. If the U.S.-Iran agreement is implemented smoothly, it will help cut energy and transportation costs. Second, major central bank policies are diverging: the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high but simultaneously announced it would stop further bond purchases, essentially keeping bond market volatility in check. Third, the upcoming first FOMC meeting under Fed Chair Powell. Initial expectations for rate cuts have quickly shifted to “higher-for-longer,” with some even discussing the possibility of another rate hike. In other words, the market is no longer trading loose liquidity—it’s repricing global funding costs. Notably, capital markets haven’t shown clear risk aversion. SpaceX expanded its IPO fundraising to $85.7 billion, NVIDIA once again issued up to $20 billion in investment-grade bonds, and BlackRock points out that roughly $8 to $9 trillion is flowing from money market funds back into risk assets. This signals the market isn’t lacking liquidity—it’s just finding new places to allocate it. As large sums flow into AI, the space industry, and big tech, valuation risks are building. A recent economist survey shows over 70% of respondents believe the chance of a 20%+ pullback in U.S. stocks over the next year is higher than historical norms, reflecting growing concern over asset prices disconnecting from fundamentals. For the crypto market, this is a typical stage driven by liquidity and risk appetite. The peace deal, falling oil prices, and returning funds all help lift overall risk sentiment. But if Powell signals during this week’s FOMC that he’s leaning toward controlling inflation or reducing the balance sheet, the market may readjust its expectations for future liquidity. On top of that, SpaceX’s stock options debut, Triple Witching Day, and the S&P 500’s quarterly rebalancing all point to significantly higher global market volatility this week. In this environment, BTC’s most important role isn’t as a leading asset—it’s an indicator of whether global funds are still willing to take on risk. In the short term, the market is trading the “peace dividend,” but what it needs to verify medium to long term is whether asset valuations in a high-interest-rate environment can hold up with real profits and cash flow.