Wintermute: Bitcoin Bottom Undefined, Focus on Capital Flows, Powell Speech and US-Iran Deal Key

June 17. Wintermute released its weekly market update. For the week ending June 15, the market has seen a rebound in risk-on sentiment driven by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and CPI data. Wintermute notes Bitcoin looks fairly attractive above $60,000 from a risk-reward perspective. Every sell-off weeds out weak hands, leaving behind a group of higher-quality holders with stronger conviction. That said, this doesn’t mean the bottom is locked in firmly yet. Until conditions improve materially, a pullback to the $50,000 range remains possible. The key thing to watch is fund flows—not just price movements or news headlines. In the last cycle, the real turning point came from consistent inflows into ETFs and stablecoins, a trend that hasn’t materialized here. That means blindly chasing any upward uptrend right now is pointless. In the short term, Powell’s speech this Wednesday is make-or-break. If his remarks lean dovish—hinting at a potential softening of core interest rates plus falling oil prices—the market will get a positive boost. If he comes across as hawkish, signaling a 4.2% rate hike is on the table, the current positive trend will end. Beyond all that, the U.S.-Iran agreement signed in Switzerland on Friday is the truly significant event.