Serenity: AMD Actively Securing CW Laser Supply, Potentially Signaling Onset of Upstream Supply Bottleneck

Serenity’s June 17 post cited a TrendForce report claiming AMD is actively locking in CW (continuous wave) laser supplies via multiple large procurement orders, a move that may only mark the start of a growing supply bottleneck. The Western supply chain has very limited independent capacity left, with only SIVE, AAOI, and potentially Macom holding minimal room for additional orders. This crunch intensified after Lumentum and Coherent locked up their relevant production capacity via long-term deals with Nvidia. For transparency, Serenity disclosed it holds stakes in both SIVE and AAOI. Serenity added that Lumentum itself is facing CW laser supply constraints, leading it to source from Japanese vendors including Sumitomo and Furukawa—firms already operating at near-full production capacity. TrendForce further noted AMD’s push is aimed at ensuring its future capacity won’t be restricted by Nvidia and other major cloud service providers (CSPs). Following Nvidia and AMD’s moves, other hyperscale CSPs like Amazon and Microsoft are poised to follow suit by securing their own CW laser capacity. This is largely to avoid being edged out by competitors in the supply chain race, positioning AMD’s action as the first domino to fall after Nvidia’s prior steps. The development highlights the significant value of the CW laser bottleneck and related ecosystem companies.