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Raster Chart Analysis: One Fed Member Supports 3 Rate Hikes This Year

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June 18 – The Federal Reserve’s June dot plot (a key part of its Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP) shows notable shifts in policymakers’ 2026 interest rate outlooks compared to March’s projections, according to data analyzed by FXStreet. Breakdown of Fed participants’ 2026 rate expectations: - 1 participant sees 3 rate hikes (no such projection in March) - 5 participants project 2 rate hikes (0 in March) - 3 participants anticipate 1 rate hike (0 in March) - 8 participants expect rates to hold steady (7 in March) - 1 participant forecasts 1 rate cut (7 in March) - 0 participants call for 2, 3, or 4 rate cuts (vs. 2, 2, and 1 participants respectively in March) Overall, the number of policymakers supporting rate hikes in 2026 has surged to 9, with one official backing an aggressive 75 basis point (bps) hike. Conversely, support for rate cuts has plummeted sharply to just one participant.
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