The Price Trend of Intellect and MiniMax Diverges, Hong Kong Stocks See Chinese Smart Beta "Buy Strength Sell Weak" Pairs Trading

Per tracking from Insightful Beating, a surge in pair trades focused on Chinese AI large language models (LLMs) is unfolding in Hong Kong’s stock market. Since the end of March, Intellectstock has rallied 170% while MiniMax has tumbled roughly 50%. Both firms have notched gains since their January IPOs, but Intellectstock’s year-to-date jump of over 1,500% dwarfs its rival. Amid a wave of global AI companies going public, investors are increasingly zeroing in on LLM profitability—a trend driving sharply divergent capital flows. HSBC projects MiniMax will unlock 65% of its shares on July 8, compared to just 6% for Intellectstock on July 7. This stark unlock gap has sharply boosted MiniMax’s short-selling activity, and analysts predict the related pair trade will pick up steam in early July. Divergences in performance and model quality are the key drivers. This year, Intellectstock lifted the price of its GLM model while keeping sales volumes steady, whereas MiniMax cut the price of its flagship M3 model by 50% one week after launch to draw customers. That price cut has sparked profit worries, prompting Goldman Sachs to slash MiniMax’s target price by 14%. Separately, JPMorgan raised Intellectstock’s target price but downgraded MiniMax, noting the discount signals weaker-than-expected model competitiveness. Gavekal Capital adds that Intellectstock’s model is more advanced and has stronger profit potential, making it unlikely MiniMax will emerge as a leading platform. Geopolitical factors are also creating opportunities. U.S. restrictions on exporting Anthropic models have channeled funds to Chinese AI manufacturers. Intellectstock rolled out its latest open-source model this week, sending its shares surging more than 70%. While Bank of America Securities initiated coverage on both Intellectstock and MiniMax with buy ratings—forecasting a post-unlock bounce for MiniMax—both firms still face downward pricing pressure from DeepSeek’s low-cost competition and fund diversion to potential IPO rivals like Moonshot AI.