The Fed's Policy Tone Quietly Shifts, But Rate Hike Unlikely This Year

The recent hacking incident targeting Coldcard wallets continues to escalate, with a sharp rise in small-value Bitcoin transfers hitting their highest level since the FTX collapse, reigniting market discussions about Bitcoin self-custody security. CryptoQuant Research Head Julio Moreno revealed data showing that the number of on-chain Bitcoin transfers under 1 BTC has risen to its highest level since November 2022, with roughly 39,600 BTC transferred in a single day—just 300 BTC short of the November 16, 2022, record of 39,900 BTC set days after FTX filed for bankruptcy. Users are proactively taking action to mitigate risks. Previous reports noted that the Coldcard Bitcoin hardware wallet was targeted in the attack; stolen funds have now reached 1,367.05 BTC, worth approximately $88.6 million, across 4,585 addresses. Galaxy Research Head Alex Thorn stated that the attack is still ongoing, urging users who have not yet moved their funds to immediately transfer assets out of addresses generated by Coldcard.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA ML) released a storage industry research report over the weekend, showing that Samsung Electronics has included 60% to 70% of its memory sales in long-term supply agreements (LTAs). The contract terms are heavily skewed toward the supplier: quarterly price cuts typically do not exceed 5%, while price hikes can reach 10% to 20% with virtually no upper limit. The LTAs signed with major U.S. tech companies mostly adopt a five-year rolling model, allowing renewal around the expiration of the first year to form long-term binding relationships. BofA ML believes this model enhances the revenue certainty of Samsung’s memory business while retaining the flexibility to raise prices during periods of tight supply and demand. Against the backdrop of sustained growth in AI server demand and the time required for memory makers to ramp up production capacity, leading players are leveraging LTAs to lock in demand from major clients and strengthen price control. Separately, data from DRAMeXchange shows that the spot price of 16Gb DDR5 has surged 733% year-on-year to $51, while DDR4 series prices have risen even more by 722% to 896%. The spot price of 1Tb NAND wafers has increased 415% year-on-year to $26.4, with a further 3% rise week-on-week. The contract price of 64GB DDR5 memory modules has exceeded $1,480, while DDR4 modules hit $1,300, both marking all-time highs; client SSD prices have doubled since the end of 2025. BofA ML attributes the factors supporting August prices to three points: increased downstream restocking demand, OEMs preparing for new product launches, and falling channel inventory. The underlying driver is the surge in AI capital expenditure: the five hyperscale cloud providers are projected to combine for $730 billion in total capital expenditure in 2026, a year-on-year increase of around 100%, and are expected to exceed $1 trillion annually from 2027 to 2028, continuously supporting upward momentum in memory demand.

US ETF manager Roundhill made a significant portfolio adjustment to its DRAM-themed fund this week. In addition to the previously reported inclusion of CXMT (Changxin Technology) with a 2.52% weight in its holdings, the fund also reduced its stake in Samsung Electronics. Roundhill’s DRAM-themed fund sold roughly 1 million Samsung shares daily from Monday to Wednesday, totaling 3 million shares over the three days, worth approximately $432 million. The fund’s current top three holdings are Samsung Electronics (26.39%), Micron Technology (24.54%), and SK Hynix (22.77%). Other major holdings include Seagate Technology, Western Digital, SanDisk, Kioxia, Nanya Technology, and GigaDevice Semiconductor.

According to Iranian media outlet Fars News, some media outlets "linked to the enemy" previously claimed that Iran had agreed to a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, sources familiar with the matter denied this assertion, stressing that Iran’s policy toward this strategic waterway remains unchanged.

According to CICC Research, since mid-to-late June, global AI-themed crypto assets have seen a noticeable correction, with the most severe pullback occurring in South Korea—where assets are marked by high leverage, extreme crowding, and a large retail investor base. Multiple factors drive this trend: the amplifying effects of high crowding and leverage; macroeconomic headwinds, including rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and renewed oil price spikes due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz; and renewed bubble concerns surrounding the AI sector’s current state, such as Meta’s decision to rent out computing power and declining token spending. Notably, before the dot-com bubble finally burst in March 2000, the tech rally had already experienced at least four major, prolonged corrections. The triggers for those declines are highly similar to the current adjustment: short-term setbacks in industry trends; macroeconomic headwinds; and overheated valuation sentiment. The eventual rebound of tech stocks back then stemmed from the easing of these three pressures. Applying this to the current market, a stabilization or resumption of a new uptrend will require the alignment of three factors: the unwinding of high crowding and leverage; a reduction or resolution of Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations; and, more importantly, new catalysts from earnings reports and industry developments—specifically the July-August earnings season.

Over the coming week, macroeconomic data and corporate earnings reports will roll out in droves. Market focus centers on Friday’s U.S. July non-farm payrolls report—the first full employment data set since the Federal Reserve held rates steady in July, which will directly shape market pricing for the September interest rate path. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s first post-IPO earnings report is imminent, and two days after the report, the largest single-stock lock-up expiration in U.S. stock market history will take place, involving roughly 911.5 million shares, with liquidity pressure a key area of concern. AI and storage-related names including AMD, SanDisk, and Western Digital will also release earnings, serving as critical barometers for demand for AI chips and storage. North America’s largest AI industry summit Ai4 2026 (August 4–6) and the global storage industry flagship MS 2026 Flash Memory Summit will run concurrently, with storage giants like Samsung and SK Hynix set to unveil roadmaps for HBM4E and V-NAND technologies. Below is a roundup of key events next week: Monday: U.S. earnings reports from Palantir, ON Semiconductor, and others Tuesday: U.S. June JOLTs job openings, factory orders, trade balance; SpaceX (SPCX) first post-IPO earnings; AMD earnings Wednesday: U.S. July ADP employment, ISM non-manufacturing PMI; SanDisk, Western Digital, Circle earnings Thursday: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended August 1, Challenger job cuts; SpaceX’s first batch of restricted stock lock-up expiration (up to ~911.5 million shares, potential value nearly $100 billion) Friday: U.S. July non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate; Fed officials Mester and Barkin to deliver speeches