Analysis: BTC Long-Term Holder Net Position Reached New All-Time High, Bear Market Bottom May Be Near

June 19. On-chain analyst Murphy reported that Bitcoin’s (BTC) Long-Term Holder (LTH) net position has hit a new all-time high. As of June 17, LTH net position stood at 14.96 million BTC, beating the prior record set on March 27 by 20,000 BTC. This marks the second time LTH net position has notched a new high since BTC entered its current bear market. More BTC holders are stepping away from short-term speculation and trading: LTHs now hold 75% of the total circulating BTC supply. Historically, bear market bottoms typically form after LTH net position starts rising—meaning "position accumulation" precedes the "bottoming out" phase. In the last market cycle, LTH net position hit three new highs, each followed by a sharp distribution phase tied to key catalysts: Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations, the Luna stablecoin collapse, and the FTX exchange implosion. This cycle is currently seeing its second new LTH net position high. The critical factor isn’t the number of new highs, but whether this time’s distribution scale shows a clear downward trend from past episodes. If selling pressure is easing this round, the actual bear market low may already be in place or is just around the corner.