Analysis: BTC Long-Term Holder Net Position Reached New All-Time High, Bear Market Bottom May Be Near

According to Hyperinsight’s monitoring data, over the past 24 hours, the open interest (OI) value of Micron (MU) on Hyperliquid decreased by approximately $39.372 million to $173 million; SK Hynix (SKHX) OI fell by about $64.124 million to $352 million. The two combined saw an OI outflow of roughly $103 million, with declines of 18.5% and 15.4% respectively. Over the same period, SanDisk (SNDK) OI rose from around $88.122 million to $120 million, an increase of $32.114 million or 36.4%, making it the only stock among the Big Three memory chip makers to record OI expansion. SNDK gained approximately 0.6% in the past 24 hours, MU rose around 0.3%, while SKHX dropped about 1.1%; SNDK outperformed MU by roughly 0.3 percentage points and SKHX by around 1.7 percentage points respectively. Position changes of large-balance addresses show: - SNDK: New positions currently lean long. Over the past 24 hours, one address added ~$2.515 million worth of SNDK longs, with no single address reducing longs by over $1 million or adding new shorts. - MU: Two addresses added a total of $3.428 million in longs, while two others cut longs by $2.587 million, resulting in a net long addition of ~$841,000; over the same period, two addresses added ~$2.858 million in new shorts, with incremental volume leaning bearish. - SKHX: No new addresses added, existing whales continue deleveraging. Million-dollar-level addresses net reduced longs by $6.811 million; shorts net decreased by $9.208 million. Top funds are leaning defensive: - MU has 14 long addresses and 18 short addresses, with long positions worth ~$46.108 million and short positions ~$66.543 million; - SKHX has 37 long addresses and 42 short addresses, with long positions worth ~$104 million and short positions ~$136 million; - SNDK has 12 long addresses and 10 short addresses, with long positions worth ~$37.441 million, still lower than short positions of $46.782 million.

According to Bitget’s market data, Nanfang’s 2x long SK Hynix product dropped 15.1%, while its 2x long Samsung Electronics product fell 12.55%.

According to mempool data, at 10:11:00 today, an independent Bitcoin miner successfully mined block 960804, earning a block reward of 3.157 BTC, worth approximately $199,300.

The Viction Foundation announced on social media that, as part of Binance’s regular review cycle, its native token VIC will be delisted in line with the exchange’s internal standards. This decision does not reflect any changes to the project’s fundamentals or operations. Viction’s mainnet has operated stably for 8 years, the network remains fully functional, the team continues to advance development work, and upcoming network upgrades will not be impacted by the exchange’s move. The team is maintaining close communication with existing exchange partners to ensure smooth trading experiences, while actively expanding partnerships with more exchanges to strengthen multi-channel liquidity and reduce overreliance on a single platform. The development roadmap is proceeding as planned and is unaffected. Exchanges are merely distribution channels that do not define the protocol itself, with more updates set to be released soon.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has said that attention should be paid to the release of this week’s Federal Reserve’s H.4.1 report, to confirm whether Japan’s Ministry of Finance repurchased its government bonds in exchange for U.S. dollars, then sold those bonds to buy yen. If the U.S. Treasury Secretary successfully raises the counterparty limit, the Federal Reserve can create money using Japan’s Ministry of Finance’s government bonds as collateral.

According to Yonhap News Agency, a poll released on Monday shows that South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest level since he took office last June, driven by controversies including the stock market slump. The survey, conducted by Realmeter and commissioned by media outlet EKN, found that Lee’s positive rating dropped 0.4 percentage points week-over-week to 45.9%, marking the third consecutive weekly decline. His disapproval rating rose 1 percentage point to 50.5%, crossing the key 50% threshold for the first time. Another poll by the same firm puts the ruling Democratic Party of Korea’s approval at 45.1%, up 3.8 percentage points from the prior week, while the main opposition People Power Party’s support fell 2.9 points to 37.7%.