Cathie Wood: Inflation Could Drop Sharply, 'Underlying Inflation' Is Only 0.5%

CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets noted that Bitcoin’s realized price UTXO time intervals show investors who have held BTC for 1 to 3 months and 3 to 6 months have average cost bases of approximately $67,000 and $72,000 respectively. Both figures are currently higher than BTC’s spot price of around $65,000, meaning these two groups of holders are collectively in unrealized loss. The $67,000 cost line for 1-3 month holders is closer to the current price. If Bitcoin continues its rebound, these loss-making holders may reduce their positions once the price approaches their cost basis, creating resistance at this level. The $72,000 cost line for 3-6 month holders forms a higher resistance level. If Bitcoin can reclaim both of these realized price levels, it would signal that the market is absorbing potential sell orders from recent buyers and strengthen the outlook for a market recovery. Until then, Bitcoin still faces significant resistance on the upside.

According to HTX market data, PUMP has surged over 15% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $0.0027.

Cathie Wood, widely known as "Wood" (her Chinese nickname "木头姐"), believes the latest U.S. jobs report may appear concerning on the surface, but the actual situation is not as bad as it seems. The real focus should be on the economic shifts behind the employment data. The U.S. federal deficit currently stands at 5.6% of GDP, a level she notes is similar to that in the early 1980s at the start of Reaganomics. If productivity and technology adoption continue to accelerate as ARK Invest expects, this ratio could approach 5% by year-end. She added that the bigger risk ahead may not be inflation, but deflation—especially for companies that fail to adopt AI and productivity tools. On oil, a supply glut is forming: after the UAE exited OPEC in May, its production hit an all-time high. Cathie Wood forecasts oil prices could drop sharply, viewing this as a deflationary driver for most of the world. Meanwhile, capital expenditure has broken out of its 30-year range. She argues that market fears of an AI bubble are overblown, as the technology remains in the early stages of its revolution. On crypto assets, Cathie Wood says Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold is stabilizing again, and she believes Bitcoin and stablecoins could be two major beneficiaries of the commercial transformation of AI agents.

According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials said Trump is patient and expected to weather the current diplomatic impasse, especially with gasoline prices holding steady. A White House official insisted that the U.S. has completed all military targets against Iran. Trump’s current focus is on ensuring unimpeded global energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. will retain military options if Iran launches further attacks on ships. On the nuclear issue, officials added that Trump has privately told senior aides in recent weeks that the U.S. military destroyed three major Iranian nuclear facilities last year, making it highly unlikely Iran will restart its nuclear activities during his tenure. Trump said in recent meetings that if Iran attempts to rebuild nuclear facilities or secretly develop nuclear weapons, U.S. intelligence agencies will detect it in a timely manner, and he believes the threat of further U.S. strikes will serve as a lasting deterrent. Officials said that if the U.S. can contain Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait returns to unimpeded navigation, Trump is more likely to extend the current ceasefire indefinitely. If Iran fully reopens the Strait, Trump is also expected to lift the U.S. military blockade on Iranian ports. (Jinshi)

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the U.S. headline CPI annual rate to fall to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, while the core CPI annual rate will drop to 2.5% from 2.6% last month. Citigroup economists argue that, as anticipated, if inflation readings soften for the second consecutive month, it will signal more than one month of cooling inflationary pressures, effectively ruling out the possibility of a September interest rate hike. However, economists also forecast that core services inflation in July will rise slightly, with prices increasing 0.3% month-on-month, after being flat from May to June. Bank of America analysts note that the rebound in the core services metric could keep a September rate hike on the table. Analyst Kate Duguid said that if the latter view prevails and inflation data comes in below expectations, the Federal Reserve may delay a rate hike until December or later. (Jin10)

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has broken through the $65,000 mark, with a 0.05% increase in the past 24 hours.