Cathie Wood: Inflation Could Drop Sharply, 'Underlying Inflation' Is Only 0.5%
2 hours ago
Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood noted in a post that during her roadshows across Asia and Europe, investors remain highly concerned about inflation. However, she argues inflation could decline sharply, driven by more than just falling oil prices. Measured by unit labor costs, U.S. year-over-year inflation has dropped to 0.5%. Wood emphasized that, as demonstrated in the 1980s and 1990s, productivity is a powerful tool against inflation. U.S. first-quarter productivity rose roughly 3% year-over-year, while hourly compensation increased 3.5% year-over-year, resulting in a "potential inflation" rate of 0.5%—meaning there is no cost-push inflation. Truflation, an index tracking real-time prices of thousands of consumer goods and services, has fallen from 11% year-over-year in 2022 to 1.8%, with core Truflation down to 1.4%. Drawing on five studies commissioned by Kevin Warsh, Wood believes Warsh not only grasps the role of productivity in curbing inflation but also recognizes the flaws in official government inflation metrics. While others anticipate interest rate hikes earlier than previously expected months ago, Warsh will deliver a masterclass on monetary policy to financial markets.
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