Preview: The U.S. May core PCE data will be released at 20:30 tonight, and is projected to hit its highest level since October 2023.

The Fed’s key inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, will be released at 20:30 tonight, with markets expecting a sharp rise in May inflation that could reignite rate hike bets. The headline PCE year-over-year growth rate is projected to hit 4.1% in May, up from 3.8% in April and marking its highest level since 2023. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to rise to 3.4% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in April and its highest reading since October 2023. Core PCE has remained above the Fed’s 2% inflation target since 2021. The recent short-term inflation uptick was driven mainly by surging gasoline prices amid the Iran conflict in May. Oil prices have since edged lower following the signing of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, but core inflation has strengthened in tandem, indicating that price pressures are not solely tied to geopolitical oil shocks. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that as of Wednesday, markets are pricing in a 34% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in July. Aditya Bhave, U.S. economist at Bank of America Securities, noted that the recent inflation rebound stems in part from tariffs and one-off disruptions, but successive supply shocks have eroded the Fed’s patience, while deflationary room in the housing sector has largely been exhausted. Data shows that core PCE dipped to 2.6% in April, its lowest level since 2022, but annualized core PCE growth over the past three and six months has hovered near 3.8%.