JPMorgan Chase raised its S&P 500 target to 7,800 points, while warning of an overcrowded AI trade.

JPMorgan Chase has raised its year-end outlook for U.S. stocks, while cautioning investors that the overcrowding in AI-related momentum stocks is becoming the market’s most vulnerable segment. The JPMorgan strategy team led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas lifted its 2026 year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7,600 to 7,800 points, citing continued upward revisions to corporate earnings expectations and nearly doubling of AI-related capital expenditures. The bank noted that consensus earnings expectations for both 2026 and 2027 have been revised up by roughly 10% since the start of the year, a magnitude typically only seen in the recovery phase after a recession or major shock. However, JPMorgan does not interpret this upward revision as a risk-free rally. The bank pointed out that low-quality growth stocks, speculative growth stocks, and second- and third-tier AI-related concept stocks have become "extremely overcrowded," and a pullout of capital could trigger a rapid correction. The strategists also noted that rising equity supply in the coming quarters and potentially tight monetary policy could cap further valuation expansion. On the allocation front, JPMorgan recommends a barbell strategy: holding high-quality growth stocks and stocks directly benefiting from AI on one end, and low-volatility, high-quality stocks as a portfolio buffer on the other. The bank remains bullish on tech, select industrials, utilities, defense, banks, and some healthcare growth stocks, but believes the market’s upward trajectory will not be linear.