Tom Lee: Markets have nearly priced in two interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year, and the rise in US Treasury yields is weighing on market sentiment.

Tom Lee said the market is still digesting Kevin Warsh’s remarks from his first press conference last week and repricing the macro environment. Over the past week, oil prices have pulled back, with war premiums contracting. Current oil prices are not far from the roughly $65 level seen before the conflict, indicating the market views related war risks as declining. On the other hand, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, now around 4.5%, higher than the pre-conflict level of roughly 4.2%. The main headwind the market has faced recently has shifted from oil prices to yields. Tom Lee noted that the market is not only focused on 10-year U.S. Treasury yields but also starting to price in potential additional interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. According to federal funds futures, the market is currently pricing in nearly two rate hikes this year. Bank of America further projected today that the Fed will raise rates three times this year, in September, October, and December respectively. Jeffrey Gundlach often emphasizes the importance of monitoring 2-year U.S. Treasury yields, as they typically lead the Fed and signal the central bank’s policy direction. Between 2023 and 2025, the relationship between 2-year U.S. Treasury yields and the federal funds rate indicated that the Fed’s policy was overly tight, requiring interest rate cuts. However, this relationship has recently reversed, meaning the Fed would need two rate hikes to catch up with 2-year U.S. Treasury yields. He believes that, at least for now, yields have become a headwind for the market.