Oil prices erase all war-related premiums in 11 days, Brent crude falls below pre-war levels, but critical inventory shortages could spark a rebound.

International oil prices have quickly fallen back to pre-US-Iran conflict levels, erasing all gains made during the conflict in just 11 days – a move that has surprised markets widely. Brent Crude dipped as low as $72.06 on Thursday, breaking below the pre-conflict last trading day’s settlement price of $72.48, and has plunged more than 39% from its March peak of $118.35. WTI Crude closed at $71.92, down roughly 36% from its high. This round of decline has far outpaced expectations. The industry had widely estimated that mine clearance in the strait would take time and Gulf production capacity would need months to recover, but actual progress has been much faster. JPMorgan analysts noted that the market rebalanced through a "distinctly different combination of demand loss and inventory drawdown", which is very different from initial assumptions. However, the rapid easing may not be stable. S&P Global data showed that 78 oil tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, hitting a post-conflict high, but this is still only 57% of pre-conflict levels, with many of these vessels being those trapped earlier and departing in a concentrated manner. TD Securities’ head of commodity strategy warned that the market may have overestimated the pace of supply and inventory recovery, and inventory pressure has become a key variable. U.S. Cushing inventories fell to 19 million barrels last week, about 1 million barrels below the level needed to keep the system stable. TD Securities forecasts that an additional 600 million barrels of global inventory may be drawn down by October; once inventories fall below a critical threshold, oil prices could rebound quickly. For the outlook, Mizuho Securities analysts believe the market is already in an "oversold" state, and expect oil prices to rebound to the $80 range in the coming weeks. Full production recovery in countries like Iraq and Kuwait is not expected until this autumn, when the supply-demand pattern may change again.