Bank of America: There are three key thresholds for US stocks to trigger a full-scale risk-off move this summer; none of the conditions have been triggered yet, but relevant signals are accumulating.
2 hours ago
Bank of America Securities chief strategist Hartnett outlined three triggers for a "full risk-off" environment this summer in his latest Fund Flow Report: Mag7 ETF falling below $60, USD/JPY dropping below 110, and the yield curve inverting again. None of these conditions have been met yet, but signals are building. U.S. equity funds have posted a net outflow of $8.5 billion, the first such outflow since March, following a historic $119.2 billion net inflow. The divergence where hyperscale cloud providers continue to underperform chip stocks has put the sustainability of AI capital expenditure at the center of market debate: Apple’s MacBook price hikes and Microsoft’s Xbox price increases are both directly tied to rising memory costs. Vera Rubin rack memory prices have surged 435% cumulatively, and Goldman Sachs projects AI capital expenditure could reach as high as $1.4 trillion by 2027. Hartnett’s core ongoing question is: How much further do cloud providers need to fall before the market begins pricing in capital expenditure cuts? U.S. equity funds have already shifted ahead of time; liquidity flowing out of tech giants is pouring into cyclical assets like semiconductors, small-caps, housing, and REITs, a move the market interprets as a front-run bet on policy shifting toward "affordability." At the asset class level, Hartnett believes gold still holds strong allocation value below $4,000, and going long on long-dated U.S. Treasuries is the most contrarian long-term trade right now. The U.S. dollar is only suitable for short-term holding rather than long-term allocation, and his strategic view is to go long on emerging markets over the long term. Since Fed Chair Waller took office on May 22, U.S. Treasuries have risen 3.2% cumulatively, while stocks have fallen 1.6%, with bonds significantly outperforming.
ForeGate teams up with Michael Owen, OKX and others to release the World Cup AI Prediction Research Report
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US and South Korean Stocks Monday Price Preview: SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics Projected to Rise 2%, US Pre-Market to Fluctuate Sideways
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Marc Andreessen: Zhipu AI’s GLM-5.2 Rivals Top U.S. Open Models, Large Language Model Capabilities Gradually Move Toward a Multipolar Competitive Landscape
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Michael Saylor has once again released updates for his Bitcoin Tracker, potentially signaling another round of BTC accumulation.
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Bank of America: Three key thresholds for US stocks to trigger a "full risk-off" this summer, with signals for these conditions already building up.
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Samsung Electro-Mechanics plans to sign a 500 billion won large order for AI server MLCCs, and will partner with Sumitomo Chemical to develop glass substrate business.
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