BIS: AI May Face Four Long-Term Development Paths, Insufficient Demand Could Become Key Factor Limiting Growth
3 hours ago
According to a new study released by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), AI is poised to break the pattern where traditional technological revolutions only boost labor productivity, and could reshape long-term economic growth trajectories by enhancing knowledge creation capabilities. The study identifies four potential future scenarios for AI: status quo, limited productivity gains, demand bottleneck, and transformative AI. If AI can continuously improve its own capabilities, both economic growth rates and natural interest rates are expected to rise significantly above historical levels. However, AI development will not necessarily accelerate indefinitely. As automation continues to replace labor, the share of labor income may decline, and consumer demand may struggle to keep pace with expanding production capacity. If enterprises perceive insufficient future market demand, they may reduce ongoing investments in AI innovation and automation, leaving technological progress constrained by demand rather than technology itself. The BIS notes that under this "demand bottleneck" scenario, insufficient final demand will become the primary constraint on long-term economic growth, while the long-term impact of AI will still depend on multiple factors including technological breakthroughs, income distribution, and demand evolution.
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