Analysis: Long-term holders’ holdings hit an all-time high, potentially signaling Bitcoin’s current cycle has bottomed out ahead of schedule.

Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten stated that Bitcoin Long-Term Holder (LTH) holdings have hit an all-time high. This metric has historically coincided with market cycle bottoms, suggesting Bitcoin could bottom earlier in this cycle compared to previous ones. Per Glassnode data, long-term holders hold approximately 14.7 million Bitcoins, an all-time peak, indicating veteran investors retain strong confidence in holding the asset. Klippsten believes this trend signals the market bottom may arrive sooner. However, not all share this view. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, previously noted Bitcoin may bottom between October and December 2026. He explained that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)’s mNAV (market value relative to Bitcoin reserves net asset value) typically bottoms roughly six months ahead of Bitcoin; currently, the metric stands at 0.72, near the 2022 bear market low of 0.7, leading him to project this cycle’s Bitcoin bottom will land in the $42,000 to $44,000 range. Separately, Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, warned that if the U.S. CLARITY Act fails to pass this year, Bitcoin reserve firms like Strategy may continue deleveraging, adding further downward pressure to Bitcoin prices. Galaxy Digital has also lowered the probability of the bill being enacted by 2026 to 50%, citing a limited time window for the U.S. Senate to advance related legislation before its August recess.