Institutional analysts note that two historically rare divergence signals have appeared in the U.S. stock market, with a roughly 67% probability of entering a bear market over the next three months.

Research firm Ned Davis Research noted that two historically rare market divergence signals have emerged simultaneously in the U.S. stock market recently: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has continued to hit new highs, while the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants have lagged significantly; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index have shown notable trend divergence. Historical data indicates such situations often occur near key market inflection points. As of mid-June, on a 26-week rolling basis, the SOX has outperformed the Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Index by over 100 percentage points, with their correlation dropping to its lowest level since the end of 2021. Ned Davis Research pointed out that a similar divergence occurred in 2021, after which the Magnificent Seven and semiconductor sectors peaked successively, and the U.S. stock market entered a bear market in 2022. Meanwhile, in the seven trading days leading up to June 25, the Dow rose 0.5% while the Nasdaq fell 5%, marking a 5.5 percentage point gap in their rolling performance. Since the Nasdaq’s launch in 1971, such a large divergence has only appeared in roughly 1% of trading days. Historical statistics show that after similar divergences, the probability of the market being in a bear market over the next three months is around 66.9%, significantly higher than the historical average of 24.8%. However, the firm stressed that the above statistical patterns do not mean a bear market is inevitable. The current market rally lacks broad participation, and divergence across sectors continues to widen. Investors should closely monitor whether the aforementioned divergences intensify further and take timely risk management measures.