Kalshi’s June trading volume hits a record high of $9.4 billion, with the World Cup driving a surge in prediction market trading.

Driven by the 2026 FIFA World Cup, U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi’s June trading volume rose to around $9.4 billion, a nearly 77% jump from May’s roughly $5.3 billion and an all-time high. In the same period, Polymarket International’s trading volume grew from around $3.5 billion to approximately $4.3 billion. Data shows the World Cup served as a key catalyst for the growth of prediction market trading. As this World Cup expanded to 48 teams for the first time, increasing the number of matches and knockout scenarios, it boosted activity in single-match event contracts. Notably, the Round of 16 match between Canada and Morocco saw trading volumes exceeding $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket respectively. However, the rapid surge in trading volume has also intensified regulatory debates. Multiple U.S. states continue to argue that sports event contracts should be subject to gambling regulation, rather than being classified as derivatives markets overseen by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Meanwhile, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) recently warned that some event contracts may fall under the regulatory scope of existing binary options rules. Analysts note that the World Cup has validated prediction markets’ ability to attract liquidity during major events, but whether sports event prediction contracts should be regulated as financial derivatives or gambling remains a core regulatory issue facing the industry.