Ming-Chi Kuo: Foldable iPhone may repeat the iPhone X playbook, launching later and facing supply constraints through the end of the year.

TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stated in a note that the foldable iPhone could repeat the iPhone X playbook: it will be unveiled alongside other models, but pre-orders and official launch will be delayed, and supply shortages may persist through the end of 2026. Based on third-quarter 2026 production volumes, the foldable iPhone is likely to mirror the 2017 iPhone X. That year, the iPhone X was unveiled alongside the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus on September 12, but due to insufficient stock, pre-orders were pushed back to October 27 and official sales to November 3. Given the foldable iPhone’s limited third-quarter shipments, it may also open pre-orders and official sales only in the fourth quarter of 2026. After discussions with telecom operators, sales channels, and resellers/parallel import agents, Kuo concluded that even if the foldable iPhone is priced at roughly $2,300 to $2,500, demand will remain strong at least through the end of 2026. This means the device could sell out rapidly once pre-orders open, with shipment wait times potentially jumping to 4 to 6 weeks or longer, extending into December. He added that the foldable iPhone’s initial limited supply, distinct design, and innovative user experience could drive up short-term resale prices, with resale prices 50% to 100% higher than the official retail price not being out of the question.