Analysis: Bitcoin rebounds, yet spot trading volume shrinks rapidly, with risks of long squeezes in derivatives accumulating.

Crypto analyst Murphy notes that as Bitcoin rebounded from $58,000 to nearly $64,000, its spot relative volume plummeted rapidly. A rebound unsupported by spot demand is unlikely to form the foundation of a trend reversal, often being merely a sentiment-driven recovery rally, so its sustainability demands close monitoring. On the positive front, the USDC/USDT exchange rate has retreated from 1.001 to 1.0006, signaling waning exit intentions and recovering trading activity. While major stablecoins on trading platforms still remain in net outflow, the outflow magnitude has continued to narrow, and this marginal improvement in funding conditions underpins the rebound’s continuation. However, the weakening of spot drivers means derivatives have gained relatively more weight. The 7-day average long premium for perpetual contracts has climbed steadily to $160,000 per hour, indicating taker buy orders have persistently pushed perpetual contract prices above spot levels. Open interest has declined somewhat but remains significantly higher than levels in February this year. The current long premium is still within a normal range, but as the rebound persists, the risk of a long squeeze will keep building. Once open interest rebounds again, fierce battles between bulls and bears will trigger faster and more violent volatility—a hidden risk that requires advance attention.