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Analysis: Bitcoin’s 365-day Sharpe ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, a metric that has repeatedly correlated with bear market bottoms historically.

2026.07.06 18:35:48

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 28% year-to-date. Its 365-day rolling Sharpe Ratio once dropped to around -21, the lowest level since the end of 2022, and remains near -20 currently. The Sharpe Ratio gauges an asset’s risk-adjusted return performance. A negative value means investors have taken on higher volatility risk while actual returns are lower than risk-free assets like 10-year U.S. Treasuries. Against the current U.S. Treasury yield of approximately 4.45%, this metric reflects that Bitcoin’s risk-return performance over the past year has clearly worsened. However, CryptoQuant points out that historically, such extreme negative Sharpe Ratio levels often signal market selling pressure is nearly exhausted. Similar levels appeared near Bitcoin’s bear market bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022, all followed by the start of a new upward cycle for the cryptocurrency.

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