Trump Trapped in Iran Conflict Quagmire: Ceasefire Efforts Suffer New Setback, Midterm Elections and Inflation Pressure Rise Simultaneously

With the outbreak of a new round of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, Trump’s plan to disengage from the Iran conflict has once again hit a snag. Analysts note that against the backdrop of a shaky ceasefire and ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump is facing threefold pressure: diplomatic, energy, and electoral. The U.S. had earlier reinstated sanctions on Iran’s oil sales, while Iran launched retaliatory strikes on U.S. military bases. Disputes between the two sides over control of the Strait of Hormuz have become the core trigger for the conflict’s escalation. Market observers point out that with the U.S. midterm elections just months away, surging energy prices are driving up U.S. inflation, posing a major political risk for Trump. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 34%, hitting a new low in his second term. While Trump still insists the conflict will “end soon”, multiple analysts believe he can neither force Iran to compromise via military actions nor secure breakthroughs in diplomatic talks. The situation is likely to remain in a state of “limited conflict and sustained rivalry” for the long term. Institutions generally hold that if risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist, international oil and fuel prices will stay at high levels. This will not only intensify risk aversion in global markets but also further push up U.S. domestic inflation, exerting sustained pressure on Trump’s campaign and the Republican Party’s midterm election prospects.