Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions boost rate hike expectations, with 2-year U.S. Treasury yields hitting their highest level in over a year.

As renewed tensions in Iran push up oil prices and spark market speculation that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to curb inflation, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note has climbed to its highest level since early 2025. The rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield rose as much as 3 basis points to 4.24%, hitting a new high since February 2025; the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield also gained 3 basis points to 4.59%. Swap market data shows the market has now almost fully priced in the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, compared with a roughly 66% probability a week ago. “The market is currently very sensitive to news related to Iran,” said Kenneth Crompton, head of rates strategy at the National Australia Bank. “The market did not expect tensions to repeat the situation seen in March, but given the ongoing attacks over the weekend and strikes on Russian oil refining facilities, a sense of caution is creeping back into market sentiment.”