QCP: This week’s CPI data and the US stock earnings season may impact risk appetite, with BTC likely to remain range-bound in the short term.

Reciprocal airstrikes between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend stoked market risk aversion, pushing Bitcoin down more than 1% since 00:00 UTC on July 13, with the cryptocurrency briefly dipping to near $63,000. Brent crude futures, meanwhile, climbed over 3% to nearly $79 per barrel. Markets are worried that shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will lift energy prices and inflation, in turn limiting the Federal Reserve’s scope for interest rate cuts and weighing on risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Kula Digital Assets Head Taran Dhillon noted that this week the crypto market will engage in a "tug-of-war" between macroeconomic data and Middle East geopolitical developments. Upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI figures will shape market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate trajectory. That said, spot Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs have ended eight straight weeks of net outflows, signaling a rebound in institutional demand. Furthermore, the ongoing progress of the CLARITY Act is expected to further improve digital asset regulatory outlooks, offering support to the market.

Although Bitcoin recently pulled back to around $62,000 amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, some market analysts believe this bear market could end between September and October this year, with the bull market expected to start earlier than the market’s general consensus. Trader Ryker noted that while the market generally expects the next bull run to begin in 2027, market makers typically position themselves in advance, so he predicts Bitcoin will start rallying in September or October this year. Trader Jelle pointed out that Bitcoin’s weekly chart has formed a "death cross"—a signal that historically occurs at the end of bear markets, suggesting the market may have entered a new accumulation phase. However, in the short term, Bitcoin still faces pressure. Analysts say $64,000 remains a key resistance level; if it fails to break through, a further pullback to around $57,800 is possible. Additionally, this week the market will get U.S. June CPI and PPI data, as well as testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh before Congress. Meanwhile, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and instability in the Strait of Hormuz have boosted oil prices and inflation expectations, which may continue to roil risk assets including crypto assets. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that mid-sized Bitcoin addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC net sold approximately 67,000 BTC on July 13, marking the largest such distribution since February this year. However, the firm noted that similar distribution activity historically occurs just before price rebounds. While the current signal is not enough to confirm a market bottom, it is approaching the historical range where a major shift in mid-sized investor behavior typically takes place.

According to Sky News, the UK government has designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. This means the following acts now constitute criminal offenses: Inviting support for the IRGC, or expressing opinions or beliefs in support of the group; Assisting the IRGC in activities related to the UK, or engaging in activities that could substantially aid the organization; Accepting or retaining material benefits provided by the IRGC or its representatives. Violations of the new law are punishable by up to 14 years in prison and/or fines.

The Houthi armed forces released a statement accusing Saudi Arabia of carrying out a series of airstrikes on Sanaa International Airport, describing the action as an "open, shameless act of aggression". The statement noted that this incident marks the end of the de-escalation phase, warning that Saudi Arabia will bear the consequences of its aggression, and emphasized that the act will not go without response and punishment.

According to Iran's state television, Iranian officials have stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed after U.S. military forces violated a memorandum of understanding. The closure is intended to establish Iran's sovereignty over the waterway in line with the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. International crude oil prices are currently on the rise, with both WTI and Brent crude oil prices surging by more than 3.3%.

U.S. Central Command has stated that U.S. military forces did not conduct strikes on Iran's Kharg Island. (Jinshi)