CITIC Securities: Current US-Iran Deadlock Faces Potential Risk of Prolongation

NVIDIA-backed AI cloud service startup Fireworks has closed a $1.5 billion funding round, pushing its valuation to $17.5 billion. The round was led by Atreides Management, Index Ventures, and TCV, with participation from NVIDIA, Evantic, and Lightspeed Venture Partners, among others. Fireworks specializes in hosting and running open-source AI models for developers, with its annual recurring revenue (ARR) now exceeding $1 billion—five times the figure from the same period last year. CEO Lin Qiao noted that growing numbers of enterprises are turning to open-source models amid cost pressures, and Fireworks delivers models of equivalent quality at 5 to 10 times lower cost than closed-source counterparts. Fireworks supports models from firms including DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Zhipu AI, and has partnered with Microsoft, leveraging over 20 computing power suppliers (including Microsoft) to operate its services. The company currently processes roughly 40 trillion AI tokens daily, and has also started offering GPUs for AI model training. Around half of Fireworks’ revenue last year came from AI coding firm Cursor; its client base is now more diversified, with other customers including Elastic, GitLab, and MongoDB. The new funding will be used to purchase additional GPUs, expand the sales team, and recruit technical staff. The company plans to grow its headcount from approximately 200 to 600 by the end of 2026.

Deutsche Bank analyst George Saravelos pointed out in a report that if the Federal Reserve shifts its policy focus from interest rate hikes to balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening, QT) to tighten monetary policy, the U.S. dollar could weaken. He noted that Japan’s experience is instructive: although the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised interest rates slowly, it has been withdrawing liquidity via QT at a record pace, yet the yen remains at historic lows. In addition, balance sheet tightening could spark policy conflicts with the Trump administration, which has explicitly stated its goal of keeping long-term U.S. Treasury yields low. Saravelos also added that the BOJ’s independence remains a key focus for markets, and Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato has even discussed using domestic savings to support Japan’s bond market. (Jin10)

According to US reports on July 15, internal assessment data from the US Department of Defense shows that the actual cost of US military operations against Iran could reach as high as $100 billion, far exceeding the approximately $30 billion previously disclosed by the US government. The huge gap between the two figures is mainly because the official estimates did not include undisclosed combat expenses, losses of advanced fighter jets, and the cost of severe damage to US military facilities in the Middle East. US Senator Angus King stated that American people are very disappointed at not being able to know the actual cost of the war, "not to mention the additional costs the war has brought to people in areas such as gasoline prices." (CCTV News)

Goldman Sachs data shows retail investors now account for roughly 30% of daily trading volume in U.S. stocks. In May this year, retail stock trading volume was 10% higher than the peak during the January 2021 "Retail vs. Wall Street" period, and hit a new all-time high in June. The options market has seen a corresponding surge in activity, with daily trading volume repeatedly topping 50 million contracts so far this year—doubling levels from three years ago. Citadel Securities data indicates July was one of the months with the strongest retail buying in its records, with no net daily sell-offs logged. The sustained buying has forced some underweight institutional investors to chase positions at elevated levels. Goldman Sachs estimates retail investors hold $12 trillion in assets in their brokerage accounts, roughly 10% of the U.S. corporate equity market. When including directly and indirectly held assets, the total holdings of U.S. individual investors reach $111 trillion. Bobby Molavi, Goldman Sachs’ head of execution services, described this group as the "Great White Whale" of capital markets. However, the market remains divided over the AI narrative driving the current rally. Commentator Ed Zitron warned that OpenAI’s massive computing power spending and infrastructure debt could trigger an "AI version of the Lehman Moment"; Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital, argued that AI’s productivity potential could offset short-term financial pressures.

According to CNN, last year U.S. President Donald Trump posted a "very big and exciting announcement" on Truth Social. At the time, semiconductor giant NVIDIA (NVDA.O) had just announced plans to build an AI supercomputer in the U.S. In an April 15, 2025 post to his over 9 million followers, Trump promised that "all necessary permits will be expedited and quickly delivered to NVIDIA and similar companies." However, what Trump did not disclose at the time was that he had purchased between $200,000 and $500,000 worth of NVIDIA stock just days earlier. A CNN investigation found that days after Trump bought stock in more than 20 companies, he promoted those firms on his Truth Social account, sometimes announcing government actions that could benefit the companies he had just invested in. The White House strongly denied that Trump had abused his position for personal gain, stating that all his actions were aimed at benefiting the American public. The White House added that all of the president's stock transactions are handled by external financial managers, and Trump and his family have no control over the specific trades. (Jinshi)

According to Bitget data, international gold and silver prices continue to decline. The intraday drop in spot silver has expanded to 4%, currently trading at $55.6 per ounce; the intraday drop in spot gold has widened to 2%, falling below $4,000 per ounce.