Wall Street is on alert for tonight's CPI "fake cool down"; bond markets have already priced in a July interest rate hike.
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The US will release June CPI data at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. Market consensus expects that driven by falling gasoline prices, the overall June CPI may decline by 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, with its year-on-year growth rate projected to drop from 4.2% in May to 3.8%. Core CPI is forecast to rise around 0.2% month-on-month, with its year-on-year figure falling to approximately 2.8%. However, multiple Wall Street institutions argue that this inflation slowdown stems more from the pullback in energy prices, and does not mean US inflationary pressures have faded. Housing, auto insurance, travel services, and the pass-through of tariffs on goods prices may still keep core inflation sticky. Meanwhile, the bond market is further pricing in a Federal Reserve rate hike. Interest rate options data shows the implied probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in July has risen from less than 10% to around 50%, with the two-year US Treasury yield staying above 4.25%. Earlier, Fed Governor Waller stated that if core inflation rises again, a rate hike should be considered in the near term. Institutions generally believe that even if the overall CPI declines due to lower energy prices, the performance of core CPI and its sub-components will remain key to judging whether US inflation has truly peaked and the Fed’s subsequent policy path.
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