Federal Reserve Beige Book: U.S. economy expands moderately, consumer spending faces pressure, and uncertainty persists over the outlook

Goldman Sachs data shows retail investors now account for roughly 30% of daily trading volume in U.S. stocks. In May this year, retail stock trading volume was 10% higher than the peak during the January 2021 "Retail vs. Wall Street" period, and hit a new all-time high in June. The options market has seen a corresponding surge in activity, with daily trading volume repeatedly topping 50 million contracts so far this year—doubling levels from three years ago. Citadel Securities data indicates July was one of the months with the strongest retail buying in its records, with no net daily sell-offs logged. The sustained buying has forced some underweight institutional investors to chase positions at elevated levels. Goldman Sachs estimates retail investors hold $12 trillion in assets in their brokerage accounts, roughly 10% of the U.S. corporate equity market. When including directly and indirectly held assets, the total holdings of U.S. individual investors reach $111 trillion. Bobby Molavi, Goldman Sachs’ head of execution services, described this group as the "Great White Whale" of capital markets. However, the market remains divided over the AI narrative driving the current rally. Commentator Ed Zitron warned that OpenAI’s massive computing power spending and infrastructure debt could trigger an "AI version of the Lehman Moment"; Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital, argued that AI’s productivity potential could offset short-term financial pressures.

According to CNN, last year U.S. President Donald Trump posted a "very big and exciting announcement" on Truth Social. At the time, semiconductor giant NVIDIA (NVDA.O) had just announced plans to build an AI supercomputer in the U.S. In an April 15, 2025 post to his over 9 million followers, Trump promised that "all necessary permits will be expedited and quickly delivered to NVIDIA and similar companies." However, what Trump did not disclose at the time was that he had purchased between $200,000 and $500,000 worth of NVIDIA stock just days earlier. A CNN investigation found that days after Trump bought stock in more than 20 companies, he promoted those firms on his Truth Social account, sometimes announcing government actions that could benefit the companies he had just invested in. The White House strongly denied that Trump had abused his position for personal gain, stating that all his actions were aimed at benefiting the American public. The White House added that all of the president's stock transactions are handled by external financial managers, and Trump and his family have no control over the specific trades. (Jinshi)

According to Bitget data, international gold and silver prices continue to decline. The intraday drop in spot silver has expanded to 4%, currently trading at $55.6 per ounce; the intraday drop in spot gold has widened to 2%, falling below $4,000 per ounce.

According to Axios, Trump Media & Technology Group will launch the Truth API, allowing financial services companies to pay for access to real-time data from Truth Social. This marks the company’s first expansion of its media business into the data licensing space, with an official launch planned for August 1. The Truth API will initially offer real-time posts from the platform’s 10 most popular accounts, including Donald Trump, the White House, FBI Director Kash Patel, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino, and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., among others. The company may expand the range of accessible accounts in the future based on clients’ payment levels. Interim CEO Kevin McGurn stated that the company has already signed multiple clients ahead of the launch, including financial news organizations and high-frequency trading firms, though he did not disclose specific names. He noted that some institutions have long scraped Truth Social data and resold it to their own clients, and the API licensing process will be significantly faster than scraping. Trump Media is also discussing licensing Truth Social data to AI companies for use in training large language models. Last year, the company generated $3.68 million in advertising and subscription revenue, with a net loss of $712 million, a large portion of which stemmed from accounting expenses related to cryptocurrency investments.

According to Fortune, prediction market startup Pascal has closed a $9 million Series A funding round led by Union Square Ventures, with its valuation undisclosed. The firm previously raised a $6 million seed round in August last year, backed by Wintermute Ventures and DBA. Pascal launched in June this year and remains in private beta. Its product is positioned close to a perpetual contract trading platform, allowing users to trade on future events, with a focus on low fees, faster execution speeds, and tools for professional traders and institutions. The company also plans to mitigate the issue of "phantom fills" (apparent trades that fail to finalize settlement) and boost liquidity through incentives.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that the year-on-year growth rate of DRAM contract prices will peak in the fourth quarter of 2026, after which it may decline sharply. It will be difficult to replicate the previous scenario of a four-fold annual increase, and the valuations of storage companies (12-month forward price-to-book ratio) are awaiting revaluation.