Citrini forecasts a global DRAM shortfall of 28.7 EB by 2030, with the memory market set to enter a long-term period of tight supply and demand.
2026.07.16 10:07:33
Market research firm Citrini Research’s latest forecast indicates that by 2030, the global DRAM market will still face a massive supply gap, estimated at 28.7 EB, accounting for roughly 18% of total demand that year—compared to this year’s global total production capacity of around 40 EB. According to data from Citrini researcher Zephyr, global DRAM (including HBM) demand is projected to hit 157.5 EB in 2030, while supply capacity will only reach approximately 128.8 EB. General-purpose DRAM will be the biggest bottleneck: its annual supply is estimated at 91 EB, but demand stands at 120 EB, with the gap ratio expected to widen from the current 18% to around 25%. The report stresses that even as Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Chinese manufacturers continue to expand production, new capacity may be quickly absorbed by surging AI demand. The core driver of the supply-demand imbalance is the boom in AI infrastructure: large model training and inference, plus HBM becoming a core component of AI accelerators, have jointly pushed up demand for traditional server DRAM. In a tight balance scenario, DRAM’s average selling price (ASP) is likely to stay high long-term, projected at $1.5–$2 per Gb, with memory costs for servers, PCs, and consumer electronics continuing to face pressure.
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